Portfolio Five After 2015 Purchases and Sales

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Attached is an updated view of Portfolio Five after 2015 purchases and sales.  New stocks include ConocoPhillips (COP), Tata Motors (TTM), and Union Pacific Corporation (UNP).  Returns only include stock price rises and decreases not dividends (so dividend paying stocks are understated).

Portfolio Four After 2015 Purchases and Sales

Portfolio Four With 2015 Purchases and Sales

Attached is a screen shot from Google Finance of Portfolio Four after 2015 purchases and sales.  New stocks include Box (BOX), Novartis (NVS), and Tata Motors (TTM).  Returns are only based on stock prices and do not include dividends (the dividend payers have higher returns).

Portfolio Three After 2015 Purchases and Sales


Attached is a screen shot from Google Finance of Portfolio Three after stock sales and purchases for 2015.  New stocks are Alibaba (BABA), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Facebook (FB).  The returns by stock represent stock price appreciation not dividends so dividend stocks have a higher return than listed.

Portfolio One After 2015 Stock Purchases and Sales


Attached is a screen shot from Google Finance for Portfolio One after the purchases and sales from Fall, 2015.  New purchases are Tesla (TSLA), Tata Motors (TTM), Novartis (NVS) and Box (BOX).  The remaining cash also is updated.  The % return by stock does not include dividends (only “raw” stock price appreciation or depreciation), so dividend payers have a higher return than is listed.

Stock Selections for 2015

Attached are the stock selections for 2015.  We are expanding the list slightly because most of the funds not only have new cash to invest for 2015 but we also did a recent round of selling that needs to be re-invested.

US Stocks

  1. Box (BOX) – $13, 52 week range $11-$24, $1.5B market cap, no dividend, little debt.  Box provides a cloud-based document storage and governance capability and is growing rapidly among Fortune 500 corporations
  2. Mastercard (MA) – $101, 52 week range $75-$101, $114B market cap, 0.7% yield, $1.5B debt.  Mastercard is a global credit card brand that benefits from the long-term migration of cash and checks to credit.  Their biggest competitor, Visa, recently announced a merger with Visa Europe which likely will distract that company for several years and give Mastercard an opportunity to pick up market share
  3. ConocoPhillips (COP) – $55, 52 week range $41-$74, $68B market cap, 6% yield, $25B debt.  ConocoPhillips is an oil and gas exploration company that is a major bet on future price rises for natural gas and oil with technical knowhow and efficient production.  They recently made major cuts in response to the commodity price collapse
  4. Union Pacific (UNP) – $86, 52 week range $79-$124, $73B market cap, 2.6% yield, $13B debt.  Union Pacific operates a massive US rail network and has been hit recently by reductions in the industrial and commodity economies.  However, they are highly efficient and represent a solid long term bet on industrial growth and recovery

Foreign Stocks

  1. Tata Motors (TTM) – $30, 52 week range $21-$51, $19B market cap, no dividend, $11B.  Tata Motors is an Indian based company that benefits from low costs and growth in the Indian car market and also owns Jaguar and Land Rover.  The stock will be down a bit early next week because they just released earnings and showed an unexpected loss due to a one time event
  2. China Eastern Airlines (CEA) – $30, 52 week range $20-$50, $8B market cap, no dividend, $6B debt.  China Eastern Airlines can benefit from the growth in outbound Chinese tourism and investment as well as potential government mandated consolidation in the airlines sector which could result in higher profits and reduced competition
  3. Alibaba (BABA) – $83, 52 week range $57-$120, $207B market cap, no dividend, $8B debt.  Alibaba is a major web commerce / mobile player in China.  Much of Yahoo’s value was based on an ownership stake in this entity (we recently sold off Yahoo)
  4. Novartis (NVS) – $89, 52 week range $88-$106, $214B market cap, 2.7% yield, $22B debt.  Novartis is a major Swiss based drug maker


This is a new section.  These are some riskier stocks either because of high prices or uncertain outcomes.

  1. Tesla (TSLA) – $232, 52 week range $181-$286, $30B market cap, no dividend, $2.6B debt.  Tesla is a maker of electric cars led by the charismatic Elon Musk.  Their valuation is very high considering that they lose money, gas prices are low which reduces the savings from electricity, and they deliver a fraction of the cars that a “major” automotive giant would.  On the other hand, their fan base is passionate and their design is praised
  2. Facebook (FB) – $107, 52 week range $72-$110, $301B market cap, no dividend, little debt.  Facebook is the ubiquitous social media presence with a huge and growing global and mobile footprint and messaging.  Their market cap has almost tripled since their IPO and are led by the charismatic Mark Zuckerberg
  3. Cheniere (LNG) – $46, 52 week range $43-$82, $11B market cap, no dividend, $16B debt.  Cheniere is a long term bet on liquified natural gas, which takes (relatively) cheap US gas and ships it to offshore countries seeking clean energy and diversified energy sources.  This is a risky but possible bet because the facilities are mostly built but yet to ship gas and prices are falling, but the long term upside is also large if they can survive and prosper

Stocks on Watch Across Portfolios

Stocks on Watch – All Portfolios

Portfolio One

– Trans-Alta (TAC)

– Yahoo (YHOO)

– Garmin (GRMN)

– Wal-Mart (WMT)

Portfolio Two

– Not applicable because we will likely sell all and move to ETF’s and brokerage CD’s

Portfolio Three

– Wynn (WYNN)

– Yahoo (YHOO)

– Wal-Mart (WMT)

Portfolio Four

– Coca Cola Femsa (KOF)

– Devon Energy (DVN)

– Garmin (GRMN)

– Seaspan (SSW)

Portfolio Five

– Yahoo (YHOO)

– Seaspan (SSW)

Portfolio Six

– Seaspan (SSW)

– Coca Cola Femsa (KOF)

Portfolio Six Updated October 2015

Portfolio Six is four years old.  The beneficiary contributed $2000 and the trustee $4000 for a total of $6000.  The current value is $5572 for a loss of ($427) or (7.1%), or negative (2.9%) / year.  See details here or use the links on the right.

Like many of the portfolios, the commodity price collapse has impacted these stocks.  Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) are both well run companies working to cope with lower oil and natural gas prices and to protect their dividends and long term interests.  Seaspan (SSW) is a Chinese shipper with a very high dividend of 9% that it is currently maintaining.  Finally, Coca Cola Femsa (KOF) is the Mexican Coke bottler which has been negatively impacted by the fall of the Mexican Peso vs. the US dollar.


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