Portfolio Updates for 2021

During 2021 the markets had a lot of ups and downs, but overall it was a great year for stocks.

Our portfolios in aggregate returned about 18% (adjusted for contributions in the fall of 2021 and amounts that were essentially un-invested in cash) during 2021. This compares roughly equivalent to the US markets that returned about 25% in aggregate and foreign markets that returned about 8% (by comparing against Vanguards VEU ETF which is large-cap stocks not including the USA), since our portfolios are a mix of them.

These portfolios are tracked in Google Sheets in two ways:

1. a single consolidated portfolio tracker in google sheets, which has the shares by stock for each portfolio and the cash associated with each portfolio, to get the total value. I take “snapshots” of value at different types of the year, as you can see in the graph above. This google sheets doc is pretty easy to keep up to date and lets me see the markets at a glance; I notice when it seems odd and often it is a stock split which needs to be reflected in the underlying data. Buys and sells only take a few minutes for me to update in the sheet. I then reconcile the portfolios against the records online from our financial records
2. 8 unique google sheets documents, one for each portfolio. These sheets have all the details for each portfolio, including the price of each stock purchase and the sale price for those that have been sold, as well as matching dividends to each stock over time (to get total return). I also have the cash flows over the years to calculate total return (gains / losses) as well as an annual return adjusted for the timing of cash flows

I typically update the individual google sheet documents periodically when we do buys and sells, usually around the fall of each year when we have contributions, but we often sell individual stocks due to unique circumstances throughout the year. All 8 of the google sheets are aligned to the consolidated sheet and the brokerage records as of now.

Portfolio Eight Updated January 2022

Portfolio eight is 6 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3500 and the trustee $7000 for a total of $10,500.  The current value is $18,548 for a gain of $8,048 or 76%, which is 14% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for a summary or to the link.

This year we sold Baozun and Sumo Logic and bought Nike, Square / Block and Tesla.  Nvidia also split shares.

The portfolio is doing well.  There are gains in Nvidia, Mastercard and Paypal (even though Paypal is down recently with hits to the software companies and payment processors).

Portfolio Seven Updated January 2022

Portfolio Seven is 6 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3500 and the trustee $7000 for a total of $10,500.  The current value is $14,317 for a gain of $3817 or 36%, which is 7.8% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for a summary or to the link.

This year we sold Bauzon (BZUN) and Sumo Logic (SUMO) and bought Nike (NKE), Block / Square (SQ), and Tesla (TSLA).

Gains have primarily come from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), PayPal (PYPL) and Mastercard (MA). PayPal is down about 40% recently with the reduction in payment and tech stocks but still is well run, but something to watch. We should strongly consider selling Alibaba (BABA) the regulatory climate in China is very harsh right now (may also be a long term buying opportunity).

Portfolio Six Updated January 2022

Portfolio Six is nine years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $28,020 which is a gain of $13,020 or 87%, which is 11.1% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for a summary or to the link.

This year we sold three stocks (Facebook, Sumo Logic and Baozun) and bought three stocks (Intel, Paypal and L’Oreal).  Nvidia (NVDA) also split shares.

The portfolio is overall doing well.  The largest gains have been tied to NVDA, OKTA, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Union Pacific (UNP) and Procter & Gamble).

Portfolio Five Updated January 2022

Portfolio Five is 12 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6500 and the trustee $13,000 for a total of $19,500.  The current value is $40,195 for a gain of $20,695 which is 106% or 9.9% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for a summary or to the link on the left.

This year we had three sales – Alibaba (BABA) for a small gain, Sumo for a small loss, and Baozun (BZUN) for a larger loss.

We purchased 6 new stocks – Appian (APPN), Activision / Blizzard (ATVI), Intel (INTC), Snap, Block (formerly Square) (SQ), and Tesla (TSLA).

Generally the portfolio has been doing well.  There are 19 stocks in the portfolio and it is quite diverse.

Recently we’ve seen declines in some former high flyers Cloudflare (NET), Paypal (PYPL), and OKTA (OKTA).  We saw some new highs with Infosys (INFY), Union Pacific (UNP) and Procter and Gamble (PG).

Portfolio Four Updated November 2021

Portfolio four is 12 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6500 and the trustee $13,000 for a total of $19,500.  The current value is $51,656 for a gain of $32,156 or 165%, which is 13.2% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Check the values here or at the link on the right.

The portfolio is doing well overall in this bull market.  The biggest winners are Tesla, NVIDIA and recently purchased Cloudflare (NET).  The other stocks are doing well.

Portfolio Performance November 2021

Our performance has been strong recently. We are up more than 20% from the lows in February 2021. Gains have been across the board and especially with some market high flyers like Cloudflare (NET), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA).

Portfolio Three as of October 2021

Portfolio three is 14 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $7500 and the trustee $15,200 for a total of $22,700.  The current value is $37,246 for a gain of $14,546 which is 64% or 6% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go to the link on the right or here for details.

The portfolio consists of three US market ETF’s – Mega, Growth and Total market.  The portfolio Is almost totally invested, with just 3% in cash.

Portfolio Two Updated October 2021

Portfolio Two is seventeen years old.  The beneficiary contributed $27,000 and the trustee $18,200 for a total of $45,200.  The current value is $79,546 for a gain of $34,346 or 76%, which is 7.6% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  For details go here or to the link on the right.

The portfolio is generally doing well.  There is a core of ETF’s and some individual stocks.  Cloudflare (NET) has been doing well and the others mostly purchased recently.  Alibaba (BABA) is up from recent very low prices caused by Chinese politics and a deferral of the Ant IPO, but we are holding on for now.

This portfolio has over $20,000 in cash and the total bond fund (BND) ETF which reduces risk but also reduces total return opportunities.  1/4 of the fund is invested in cash or low risk equivalents rather than equities. 

Portfolio One Updated October 2021

Portfolio One is our longest lived portfolio.  It is 20 years old.  The trustee contributed $20,000 and the beneficiary $10,000 for a total of $30,000.  The current value is $98,262 for a gain of $68,262 which is 227% or 9.7% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for a summary or to the link on the right.

There was a stock split since the last update – Nvidia (NVDA) split 4/1. When that occurs you need to adjust the purchase price accordingly. We purchased 5 new stocks for the account so it is almost entirely invested (less than 2% is in cash). The portfolio is generally doing well, with large positions in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Paypal (PYPL) along with 23 other stocks. There are a couple stocks on watch, notably Alibaba (BABA) tied to the Chinese crackdown and Rocket Mortgage (RKT) which was briefly part of the Meme stock frenzy.

While many recent stock purchases don’t pay much in the way of dividends, over the 20 years of this portfolio, almost $10,000 of the total return is in dividends. This is a big reason why I create these offline tracking sheets, so that you can see the impact of dividends on the portfolio.

Remaining Stock Selections

We have some outstanding investments to consider for 2021.

Portfolio Five

There are stocks in this portfolio to strongly consider selling.

• SUMO – while the SAAS / analytics sector has seen strong performance, SUMO has performed poorly.  This is a stock to strongly consider selling
• Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun is a Chinese e-commerce enablement company.  Whether due to China market / regulatory challenges or company growth, it is time to sell this stock
• Alibaba (BABA) – Alibaba has gone down significantly.  Unlike the other stocks on this sell list, I think Alibaba has a very large and important business for the long term, as a leading cloud platform / e-commerce platform.  They also own a valuable financial business.  Can keep or sell

There will be up to $10k – $11k to invest depending on the sales up above (there was $9k in the cash account due to our selling of Appian (APPN) earlier this year when it hit a brief peak).  This could be 5 or 6 stocks depending on the size, or a stock with a double purchase.

• Tesla (TSLA) and / or Toyota (TM) – the best run / most profitable companies in the space are Tesla on the electric car space and Toyota on the gas / electric combination play.  While almost all other car makers in the world are betting almost solely on electric cars with the next generation moves, Toyota continues to believe in a future for gas powered vehicles which makes sense because it will be decades or longer before a reliable electric infrastructure girds the globe (think Africa / Asia, for instance)
• Pinduoduo (PDD) – the Chinese stock market has been pummeled with regulatory changes and cold-war rhetoric.  This may also be an opportunity to buy a valuable and innovative e-commerce company at a discount
• Rocket Mortgage (RKT) – Rocket was briefly a target of a meme-stock rally and then fell but this obscures that this is a “real” company with a 7% dividend and a solid position in the US mortgage market.  This may be a long term stock to buy at a decent down price
• Kraft-Heinz (KHC) – Kraft-Heinz fell and had a significant write off.  The company is well run and has a new plan and solid dividend.  They provide essential food staples around the world
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) – this stock is an essential company in the middle of a global chip shortage but also tied to bellicose behavior from China.  May be an opportunity to purchase it at a discount
• Nike (NKE) – the global footwear leader just released earnings and said that the global supply chain difficulties would hit revenues temporarily.  Seems like an opportunity to buy a solid company at a discount
• Uber (UBER) – the ride sharing company had missteps in the past but has changed management and is well positioned to go on a big run of earnings as the economy opens up
• Square (SQ) – a well run and very interesting company in the financial space that is also moving into deferred payments (essentially loans) and bitcoin

Portfolio Seven:

There are stocks in this portfolio to strongly consider selling.

• SUMO – while the SAAS / analytics sector has seen strong performance, SUMO has performed poorly.  This is a stock to strongly consider selling
• Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun is a Chinese e-commerce enablement company.  Whether due to China market / regulatory challenges or company growth, it is time to sell this stock
• Alibaba (BABA) – Alibaba has gone down significantly.  Unlike the other stocks on this sell list, I think Alibaba has a very large and important business for the long term, as a leading cloud platform / e-commerce platform.  They also own a valuable financial business.  Can keep or sell

If these stocks were sold there would be funds available for 3 purchases.  Here are some ideas:

• Nike (NKE) – the global footwear leader just released earnings and said that the global supply chain difficulties would hit revenues temporarily.  Seems like an opportunity to buy a solid company at a discount
• Tesla (TSLA) and / or Toyota (TM) – the best run / most profitable companies in the space are Tesla on the electric car space and Toyota on the gas / electric combination play.  While almost all other car makers in the world are betting almost solely on electric cars with the next generation moves, Toyota continues to believe in a future for gas powered vehicles which makes sense because it will be decades or longer before a reliable electric infrastructure girds the globe (think Africa / Asia, for instance)
• Uber (UBER) – the ride sharing company had missteps in the past but has changed management and is well positioned to go on a big run of earnings as the economy opens up
• Square (SQ) – a well run and very interesting company in the financial space that is also moving into deferred payments (essentially loans) and bitcoin
• Chevron (CX) – a fuels company that is well run and has taken over the lead company in this space from Exxon Mobil (XOM)
• L’Oreal (LRLCY) – the French cosmetics firm has a global footprint and has really embraced digital and modern methods during the pandemic

Portfolio Eight:

There are stocks in this portfolio to strongly consider selling.

• SUMO – while the SAAS / analytics sector has seen strong performance, SUMO has performed poorly.  This is a stock to strongly consider selling
• Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun is a Chinese e-commerce enablement company.  Whether due to China market / regulatory challenges or company growth, it is time to sell this stock

If these stocks were sold there would be funds available for 2 purchases.  Here are some ideas:

• Nike (NKE) – the global footwear leader just released earnings and said that the global supply chain difficulties would hit revenues temporarily.  Seems like an opportunity to buy a solid company at a discount
• Square (SQ) – a well run and very interesting company in the financial space that is also moving into deferred payments (essentially loans) and bitcoin
• Chevron (CX) – a fuels company that is well run and has taken over the lead company in this space from Exxon Mobil (XOM)
• Pinduoduo (PDD) – the Chinese stock market has been pummeled with regulatory changes and cold-war rhetoric.  This may also be an opportunity to buy a valuable and innovative e-commerce company at a discount
• L’Oreal (LRLCY) – the French cosmetics firm has a global footprint and has really embraced digital and modern methods during the pandemic
• Uber (UBER) – the ride sharing company had missteps in the past but has changed management and is well positioned to go on a big run of earnings as the economy opens up

Stock Performance September 2021

Stock Performance September 2021

Over about the last 6 months, net of $30,000 in contributions from the trustee and the beneficiaries (some beneficiaries are making additional contributions beyond the normal $1500 / year), the funds in total have gone up by approximately 5% annualized. Net of cash and cash-like instruments (which reduce money in equities), we have returned about 6-7% annualized.

The indexes in the US on the other hand have gone up by between 10-15% annualized, depending on what you are looking at (S&P, NASDAQ, MGK performance, etc…). One of the reasons for our different performance is that we have a decent basket of foreign stocks, including some Chinese stocks which have gone down about 40% during the last 6 months (some of which have already been sold).

Since we are looking at the long term, we’ve historically selected a mix of US and foreign stocks. Foreign economies make up a majority of the worlds’ GDP, but US stocks have turned out to be the best bet recently for a variety of reasons. Chinese stocks, for instance, were hit by changes in government policies. We will continue to monitor the mix and the options for investments.

Stock Investing for Summer, 2021

I usually wait until a bit later but since there is some money on the sidelines anyways and I’ve made some stock recommendations (see here), it makes sense just to do this all right now.

This year we’ve moved 4 of the accounts (2-5) from UTMA to where they are owned by the beneficiary but the (former) trustee has “limited” agency power to see the data and make trades, but can’t move money in or out of the account.

This makes investing slightly more complicated in that I need to send the money to the beneficiary and THEY need to send it on to the investing account. I can no longer move money directly from my account to their account (due to the limited agency rules).

Portfolio Eight Updated July 2021

Portfolio eight is almost six years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3000 and the trustee $6000 for a total of $9000.   The current value is $17,408 for a gain of $8,408 or 93% which is 19% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for details or to the link on the right.

We are watching Baozun may sell due to China headwinds even though they seem to be a good company.

Portfolio Seven Updated July 2021

Portfolio seven is almost six years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3000 and the trustee $6000 for a total of $9000.  The current value is $15,466 for a gain of $6,466 or 71%, which is 15.7% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for details or to the link on the right.

The portfolio is doing well overall but we are looking at Alibaba (BABA) which is a giant company doing well but buffered by changing regulations in China, and Baozun the e-commerce enablement firm in China as well.  Will look at plans and may consider selling them.