Earlier in the year we had a mini-correction of sorts. Since then, many of the stocks in the portfolio have recovered, but some haven’t. I went through the recent stock performance of all the stocks in the portfolio and here are a few that were highlighted.
- Appian (APPN) – Appian creates low-code software for corporations. They went IPO in 2017 and had a big run up; since then their shares have been volatile. Our portfolios bought in at about $23-24 / share and now it is at $26, although it briefly hit over $40 / share (which is why the current price is about 60% of its 52 week high). Given that we bought this stock for the long term and it is holding up well overall for now we are going to keep holding and ignore that interim price spike
- Comcast (CMCSA) – Comcast has been on a 5 year + run but recently hasn’t bounced back from the recent dip and is about 20% below its’ peak. Comcast lives in a very complex regulatory and technological environment that is difficult to summarize without being an expert in that field (which I’m not). There is also the fact that Comcast is the most-hated company in the USA. Maybe it is time to give up on them
- General Motors (GM) – GM had been on a good run lately and has a 4% dividend which is also helpful. They recently took a 20% hit and haven’t bounced back. Some of this is likely due to tariff and protectionist talk since they import a lot of components and also have Chinese operations very subject to retaliation. It depends on whether you think the tariff war will really happen. They also face the metaphysical challenge of “what is a car maker” with the advent of electric cars and competition (in the stock market at least) from companies like Tesla (TSLA). Will watch this a bit and see
- Juniper (JNPR) – Juniper is a networking company that was a potential takeover candidate (there was talk of this in the market and the stock went up). In general I feel that this company will either be bought out or be damaged by the move to the cloud and the rise of players like AWS. It is down about 15% from its peak and may be time to sell (although it could also shoot back up if it became a serious takeover candidate)
- Procter and Gamble (PG) – Procter and Gamble is a storied company with a reputation for being well run. They are down almost 20% from their peak and haven’t come back. Like GM they have a nice dividend of 3.5%. The question is – is P&G going to be hurt badly by companies like AMZN or do they have enough brand firepower to thrive long term (they definitely will survive in some form). Will watch this but hate to give up on what seems to be a well run company
- Tesla (TSLA) – Tesla is a wild-card company whose valuation is dependent on Elon Musk’s awesome salesmanship. Recently it has taken a 20% hit for a number of reasons including delays in their newest car lines. Since there is no fundamental reason for its high valuation except future expectations which depend on your point of view (Tesla is valued roughly the same as massive companies Ford and GM) you are really betting on Elon’s ability to keep up whatever it is that he does. I am open to staying or selling
- Wal-Mart (WMT) – Wal-Mart is also down about 20% from its peak, for various reasons, including never-ending competition from Amazon. Wal-Mart has an OK dividend of 2.3% that keeps rising and seems well run and committed to efficiency. I don’t know if it is time to give up on this horse as an investment and take our winnings, but I’m considering it.