This is an update to my “basic investing plan” to take into account market shifts. As always do your own research and make your own investing decisions.
This is a plan for a reasonably sophisticated investor; the goals include:
- Diversity among investing classes
- A few representative investment choices to allow for differing levels of risk
- Aiming for very low costs
- International options
- Taking into account the impact of currency risk (rise and fall of the US dollar)
Fixed Income:
In my prior plan I recommended brokerage CD’s. At the time (near zero interest rates), these were the only (almost) risk-less options to get a return above zero. However, short term interest rates have shifted and it is now a viable option to leave money in money market accounts which should yield near 1.75%. The current yield curve (as of June 2018) looks like this:
- Base rate (no CD, leave in money market) – 1.75%
- 1 year CD – 2.30%
- 2 year CD – 2.80%
- 3 year CD – 3.00%
- 5 year CD – 3.30%
- 10 year CD – 3.40%
ETF Options:
ETF’s are recommended due to their (generally) very low annual expenses and their tax efficiency (they do not generate gains unless you sell them). The following ETF’s are good considerations for any portfolio:
Vanguard – Total US stock market (VTI) – Provides exposure to all classes of US public stocks (over 3000 stocks). They are “market weighted”, meaning that you are investing money based on the relative value of each stock. This means that the top tech stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon and Facebook) comprise over 10% of the total investment (as of year end 2017).
Vanguard – All-world except US stock market (VEU) – Provides exposure to all major non-US stock markets. This index is also market weighted, and includes stocks from Europe, Asia (including China) and other major markets.
iShares – Large and Mid-Capitalization Non-US stocks, Hedged vs. US Dollar (HEFA) – moves in the US dollar can significantly impact the return of foreign ETF’s like VEU, above. For instance, if the dollar rises 20% against a basket of foreign currencies over a period of time (which has happened multiple times, along with reversals), this rise could completely wipe out the underlying return of these stocks. Essentially the VEU international ETF above is maybe half a bet on the US dollar vs. a basket of foreign currencies, and a bet on the underlying performance of these foreign stocks. If you want to get the “pure” return of these assets, HEFA should be seriously considered for your portfolio. This ETF has slightly higher expenses than the other ETF’s listed above, but this is due to the added hedge costs, and is still a reasonably 0.7%.
iShares – Gold Trust (IAU) – tracks the short term price of gold. Can be viewed as a hedge against market volatility and (potentially) likely to hold its value in a time of inflation or a debased US currency. Does not offer a return in terms of dividends or stock returns.
Grayscale – Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) – as of mid June 2018, this is the only ETF (like) way to participate in the crypto space directly. It has a 2% annual expense ratio. This product trades like an ETF and can be bought or sold easily on an exchange. There are unique tax implications to owning this investment – here is the document that they provided with 2017 taxes. Not recommended unless you want to deal with additional complexity.
