Portfolio three is 11 years old. The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500. The current value is $23,170 for a gain of 40% or 5.6% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. You can see the data here or at the link on the right.
We have a few stocks that we are considering selling now.
- ABB (ABB) – ABB is a European conglomerate with a new CEO that is well run. Down about 20% from 52 week high but too early to sell (just bought it last year)
- DowDuPont (DWDP) – this chemical company is performing well. We will likely sell it before it splits into 3 stocks in 2019
- Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu is a large internet company in China. It is down about 20% from 52 week high. Will probably keep
- Elbit Systems (ESLT) – Elbit is an Israeli defense contractor. They are doing well operationally but are down about 20% from a recent peak. Probably will hold on to it
- Wal-Mart (WMT) – Wal-Mart is well run but in the fight for its’ life against Amazon. May want to take our winnings and go. Stock recently rallied…
None of these are immediate sells but ones to consider.
Portfolio One is almost 17 years old. The beneficiary contributed $2000 net (of withdrawals) and the trustee $16,000 for a total of $18,000. The current portfolio value is $42,930 for a gain of $24,930 of 138%, which is approximately 7% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows. You can see the detail here or on a link on the right.
This portfolio has moved over to the beneficiary and the former trustee now has agency so that we can take advantage of free trades on the former trustee’s account. We are now at a phase where it makes sense to consider making some sales to take “risk off” on the account. In addition, cash yields about 1.85% “risk free” in a money market account, so the impact of leaving money in cash is less impactful (it used to be earning effectively zero).
Here are the stocks that we are considering selling:
- Tesla (TSLA) – Tesla is a highly risky and volatile stock. There is enough information out there about this stock to fill 10+ blogs like this. As a result it is under consideration for selling
- Anheuser Busch Inbev (BUD) – This giant multi-national beer company is well run by the G3 group out of Brazil. But growth has been hard to come by because they are gigantic and they are battling the high end craft beer in the USA and cheaper alternatives abroad
- WIPRO (WIT) – This Indian outsourcer has a low dividend and hasn’t been making much of a return. A candidate for selling
- Wal-Mart (WMT) – Massive retailer in battle for its life with Amazon. Starting to acquire other companies and expand e-commerce footprint to compete. May want to take earnings and move on
- Illinois Tool Works (ITW) – ITW has been a great stock for many years. They acquire companies and integrate them and have earned above average returns. They recently have had some worse earnings results and maybe it is time to take gains off the table and move on
- Comcast (CMCSA) – While Comcast has a hellish reputation, they have been a good stock. Down a bit and under pressure, maybe it is time to take our gains and move on
- Ebay (EBAY) – Ebay was an amazing pioneer. After the spin off of PayPal (PYPL) which is doing great, they’ve not done super well, and seem far removed from most top-of-mind Internet conversations. Perhaps it is time to sell off remaining eBay
There are 19 stocks in the portfolio (we bought Exxon Mobil XOM twice at two different purchase prices so we show them separately and it looks like 20 stocks if you count the lines). They are not all of equal weight – they range from about $1300 to about $4300, but the average ($43k / 19) is a bit over $2000.
If all the above stocks were sold, that would be about 33% of the portfolio. At that point we could determine how much to keep in cash (perhaps all, or maybe just $10k of it) and how much to re-invest. These sales would result in gains but they would not be too significant; they are all long term sales and the maximum rate is 15% for long term capital gains (and this only applies to the “gain” portion, which would be relatively small for these stocks). Would calculate a more exact amount if we were specific on what was being sold.
We executed this plan in August and will determine what to do with the proceeds.
Earlier in the year we had a mini-correction of sorts. Since then, many of the stocks in the portfolio have recovered, but some haven’t. I went through the recent stock performance of all the stocks in the portfolio and here are a few that were highlighted. Recently updated again…
- Appian (APPN) – Appian creates low-code software for corporations. They went IPO in 2017 and had a big run up; since then their shares have been volatile. Our portfolios bought in at about $23-24 / share and now it is at $25, although it briefly hit over $40 / share (which is why the current price is about 60% of its 52 week high). Watching for now
- Comcast (CMCSA) – Comcast has been on a 5 year + run but recently hasn’t bounced back from the recent dip and is about 20% below its’ peak. Comcast lives in a very complex regulatory and technological environment that is difficult to summarize without being an expert in that field (which I’m not). Watching for now
- Dow Dupont (DWDP) – Complicated chemical company about to split into multiple units. Had some senior resignations and is down about 20%. Watching for now
- Elbit (ESLT) – Israeli defense contractor recently picked up Uzi machine gun maker from Israeli government. Down about 20% recently. Watching for now
- Facebook (FB) – a whole series of publicity gaffes and issues with privacy have damaged the stock recently
- General Motors (GM) – GM had been on a good run lately and has a 4% dividend which is also helpful. They recently took a 20% hit and haven’t bounced back. On watch
- Juniper (JNPR) – Juniper is a networking company that was a potential takeover candidate (there was talk of this in the market and the stock went up). In general I feel that this company will either be bought out or be damaged by the move to the cloud and the rise of players like AWS. It is down about 15% from its peak and may be time to sell (although it could also shoot back up if it became a serious takeover candidate)
- Procter and Gamble (PG) – Procter and Gamble is a storied company with a reputation for being well run. They are down almost 20% from their peak and haven’t come back. Like GM they have a nice dividend of 3.5%. The question is – is P&G going to be hurt badly by companies like AMZN or do they have enough brand firepower to thrive long term (they definitely will survive in some form). Will watch this but hate to give up on what seems to be a well run company
- Tesla (TSLA) – Tesla is a wild-card company whose valuation is dependent on Elon Musk’s awesome salesmanship. Recently it has taken a 30%+ hit for a number of reasons including delays in their newest car lines. May want to sell
- Wal-Mart (WMT) – Wal-Mart is also down about 20% from its peak, for various reasons, including never-ending competition from Amazon. They also are now looking to buy Humana which is interesting
Portfolios 4 and 5 are both 6 years old. Portfolio 4 has $3500 in beneficiary contributions and $7000 in trustee contributions for a total of $10,500. The current value is $10,892 for a gain of $392 or 3.7%, which is about 0.9% / year. You can see the details here or go to the links on the right.
The portfolio has several stocks that are on watch. We have been holding on to Coca Cola Femsa (KOF) which is the Mexican coke bottler but the Mexican currency (Peso) has fallen heavily vs. the US dollar. Devon Energy (DVN) has been hit hard by the commodity crash, although it is well run and pretty well hedged. Garmin (GRMN) has also fallen recently on reduced earnings guidance. Wal-Mart (WMT) is still up significantly from our purchase price but recent earnings guidance was poor and that stock fell too. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) and Statoil (STO) have also been impacted by falling oil prices, although Shell’s decision to stop arctic drilling is a good one from a financial perspective (the price of oil has made those wells uneconomic). Seaspan (SSW) has a high price buoyed by a large dividend but that may not be sustainable.
Portfolio three is eight years old, with the beneficiary contributing $4500 and the trustee contributing $9000, for a total of $13,500. The current value is $13,243 for a loss of ($256) or (1.9%), which works out to an annual return that is slightly negative (0.4%) / year. See the details here or use the links on the right.
The portfolio has had some stocks move against us lately. Wal-Mart (WMT), an historically strong performer, recently came out with 3 year stock guidance that showed low growth and the stock went down. Wynn (WYNN), a gambling company with strong interests in China, was also adversely hit by the Chinese governments’ crack down on money laundering and VIP gamblers. Exxon-Mobil (XOM), the energy giant, has gone down tied with the commodity bust. Yahoo (YHOO) is up overall but down from recent highs and is mainly a value play on its Alibaba (BABA) stake.
We will look at selling some of these stocks as part of our 2015 new stock purchase planning.
Portfolio One is our longest lived portfolio, at 14 years. It started right after 9/11 and has tracked the ups and downs of the stock market since then.
The beneficiary has contributed $7000 and the trustee $15,500 for a total of $22,500. The current value of the portfolio is $34,648, a gain of $12,148 or 54% since inception, at a rate of about 5.5% / year. To date dividends have contributed over $5000 towards the value of this portfolio. You can download the portfolio here or go to the links on the right.
For the year to date, the portfolio stocks are down about 7%, compared with the S&P 500 being up 2% and the non-US index down about 6% (in US Dollar terms). The portfolio is roughly half US and half non US and the increased downturn is due to our concentration in resource stocks and some currencies that depreciated significantly vs. the US Dollar.
There are 19 stocks in the portfolio, with an average value of about $1700. The largest position is Exxon (XOM) at about $3000 and there are 2 stocks under $1000, Statoil (STO) and Trans-Alta Corporation (TAC). It isn’t a co-incidence that STO and TAC have been hit by the recent commodity price downturn (Exxon too, although not as much). The goal would be to have less than 20 or so stocks in the portfolio.
There has been a lot of volatility in the market and we’ve been holding off on selling to see how the dust settles. We may make some sales prior to reinvesting the new stock selections for 2015. Items that we are considering for sale are TransAlta (TAC), Yahoo (YHOO), Garmin (GRMN), and Wal-Mart (WMT), although we don’t want to make hasty actions based on short term moves (this mainly applies to Wal-Mart).
Since we updated portfolios five and six in November it made sense to also update Portfolio Four. The beneficiary contributed $3000, the trustee $6000 for a total of $9000. Current value is $11,400 for a gain of $2400 or 26% which is almost 7% / year. Go here for the detail or to the link on the right.
The same stocks Westpac, Garmin, and Wal-Mart have been major contributors to the gain.