Portfolio One is a little more than 17 years old. The current balance is $42,691 (of which $10,775 is cash). The beneficiary contributed $2500 (net of withdrawals) and the trustee $17,000 for a total of $19,500. Thus gains are $23,191 or 118% on original investment, which is about 6.2% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows. Go here for details or at the link.
Although the market has not performed well lately, most of the stocks are in decent shape and the cash holdings (over 20% of portfolio, now yielding over 2%) limit downside risk (and upside opportunities later, assuming that the market goes back up at some point).
Some stocks on watch:
- Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks
- Electronic Arts (EA) – this stock is at about 53% of its 52 week high, as the whole games market has been hit hard lately even though the fundamentals (revenue) aren’t that much different, possibly due to Fortnight and the potential impact of streaming. Will watch, may sell
- Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow. Will watch, may sell
Our portfolios took a hit in early February 2018 with the rest of the market. Since then the portfolios have mostly rebounded as you can see below. The results are slightly skewed between 2/9 and 2/25 because I found ~ $2000 in additional funds in portfolio 2 due to an error since IBB had split and I recently updated the cash counts for each portfolio which probably added another $1000 net across all 8. But even with those items adjusted out, we are over $6000 above where we are right after the market drop.
These are long term portfolios and we expect variability, especially after a long bull market.
The portfolios are viewable within a consolidated portfolio tracker which is updated as the market moves via the formulas in Google Sheets. We also have analytics for each portfolio that shows pricing vs. 52 week high, dividend categorization, US / foreign, and sector data.
For each individual portfolio, they have their own google sheet which I just finished updating. Much of the analytics comes from the consolidated summary – I update a point of view on each stock there once and it “cascades” through all the sheets. I am now to the point where each sheet just has to update buys / sells, dividends, and cash balances and the rest comes from the main consolidated tracker.
Portfolio Six is 5 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $3000 and the trustee $6000 for a total of $9000. The current value is $10,716 for a gain of $1716 or 19%, which is 5% / year across the life of the portfolio. Go here to see detail, or use the link on the right.
We had $157 in dividends and a sale of TTM for a long term gain of $35. The portfolio has bounced back from February market activity and is doing OK.
Portfolio Five is 8 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000, for a total of $13,500. The current value is $16,640 for a gain of 23%, which is 4.1% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. You can see portfolio five details here or go to the link on the right.
This year we sold 2 stocks, TTM and SAVE, for a short term tax loss of ($78) and a long term gain of $24. We also had $291 in dividends.
The portfolio is generally doing pretty well and came back a bit from the early February market activity. We are watching JNPR because it may be in play as a takeover candidate.
Portfolio three is 10 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500. The current value is $23,251 for a gain of $6751 or 41%, which is 5.6% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows. Click here for details or use the link on the right.
During 2017 there were no sales and there was dividends of approximately $322. The portfolio is generally doing OK and has bounced back from the recent market activity.
Portfolio One is our longest lived portfolio, at over 16 1/2 years. The Portfolio began right after 9/11.
The beneficiary has contributed $2000 (net of withdrawals) and the trustee has contributed $16,000 for a total of $18,000. The current value of the portfolio is $43,441 for a gain of $25,441 or 141%, which is 7.2% / year adjusted for the time value of cash flows.
Portfolio One is the most advanced in that 1) I’ve transferred the account over to the beneficiary 2) I have switched to an “agent” mode where I can still make transactions like buys or sells (and this still benefits from my free commissions) 3) the beneficiary is starting to “draw down” some of the assets from the portfolio in order to fund purchases (capital assets and the like).
Go here for a summary of Portfolio One or click on the link on the right.
There were three sales last year (BOX, KO, TATA) and one purchase (NVDA). Generally the portfolio has done well, although we (obviously) sold far too earlier on AMZN and MSFT. The three sales had a net long term gain of $948, which will be subject to capital gain taxes.
It is important to recognize the positive impact of dividends on a portfolio like this – to date it has earned $6894 in dividends and $805 in 2017. When you just look at stock prices against original purchase cost you miss the significant impact (over time) of dividends. One of the major purposes of going through all this work on the portfolio is to align dividends with the stocks that drove the dividends, to see total returns.
The portfolio is generally doing OK; like everyone else we had a scare when the stocks went down in early 2018 but they’ve (mostly) come back since then. In an earlier post we discussed moving some of the funds into cash / gold to reduce overall portfolio risk. This is still being considered.
US and most world markets had a pretty strong rally after the 2016 election. From about April 2017 through January 2018 our assets (consolidated across all 8 portfolios) went from about $137k to a high of $165k prior to recent market turmoil, a gain of about 20% (we had some assets added and withdrawn across that time period which roughly netted out). This 20% or so gain is about the same as the SPY ETF ticker which matches the S&P 500.
In the last few days, we gave back about 40% or so of that gain… so we are up by about 12% since that April rally began. While recent events had some of the biggest drops in indexes like the Dow in “numeric” terms, in percentage terms the impacts were smaller. We are around the 10% reduction mark which is typically called a “correction”.
These will be interesting times. The market has come back from recent lows and there is much more volatility now. We will need to watch and see what happens next.