We are about to select stocks for 2019. I just took a bit to update the portfolios that we keep in a consolidated Google Sheets document with the latest stock sales and cash updates and tied them out to the brokerage statements.
2018-9 have been choppy years with ups and downs (up about 15% for US markets over the last 18 months or so), but we’ve generally done OK as you can see below (I will calculate performance for each portfolio adjusting for the timing of cash flows after purchasing the 2019 stocks).
These numbers also reflect the $10,500 in contributions that we just made (7 beneficiaries contributed $500 each and the trustee $1000 each for a total of $10,500 – with one more to go).
Portfolio One is 17 years old. The current balance is $45,725 (of which $11,087 is cash). The beneficiary contributed $2500 (net of withdrawals) and the trustee $17,000 for a total of $19,500. Thus gains are $26,048 or 134% on original investment, which is about 6.7% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows. Go here for details or at the link.
One item to note (it applies to all portfolios, but particularly to this one, because of its age) is the impact of dividends on long term performance. Most “simple” stock return calculations do not include dividends (they just show the rise or decrease in price over the period selected) which significantly understates the gains from stocks which pay significant dividends (especially when the dividends grow over time).
Electronic Arts (EA) and Nvidia (NVDA) are on watch for this portfolio.
Portfolio One is a little more than 17 years old. The current balance is $42,691 (of which $10,775 is cash). The beneficiary contributed $2500 (net of withdrawals) and the trustee $17,000 for a total of $19,500. Thus gains are $23,191 or 118% on original investment, which is about 6.2% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows. Go here for details or at the link.
Although the market has not performed well lately, most of the stocks are in decent shape and the cash holdings (over 20% of portfolio, now yielding over 2%) limit downside risk (and upside opportunities later, assuming that the market goes back up at some point).
Some stocks on watch:
Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks
Electronic Arts (EA) – this stock is at about 53% of its 52 week high, as the whole games market has been hit hard lately even though the fundamentals (revenue) aren’t that much different, possibly due to Fortnight and the potential impact of streaming. Will watch, may sell
Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow. Will watch, may sell
Our portfolios took a hit in early February 2018 with the rest of the market. Since then the portfolios have mostly rebounded as you can see below. The results are slightly skewed between 2/9 and 2/25 because I found ~ $2000 in additional funds in portfolio 2 due to an error since IBB had split and I recently updated the cash counts for each portfolio which probably added another $1000 net across all 8. But even with those items adjusted out, we are over $6000 above where we are right after the market drop.
These are long term portfolios and we expect variability, especially after a long bull market.
The portfolios are viewable within a consolidated portfolio tracker which is updated as the market moves via the formulas in Google Sheets. We also have analytics for each portfolio that shows pricing vs. 52 week high, dividend categorization, US / foreign, and sector data.
For each individual portfolio, they have their own google sheet which I just finished updating. Much of the analytics comes from the consolidated summary – I update a point of view on each stock there once and it “cascades” through all the sheets. I am now to the point where each sheet just has to update buys / sells, dividends, and cash balances and the rest comes from the main consolidated tracker.
Portfolio Six is 5 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $3000 and the trustee $6000 for a total of $9000. The current value is $10,716 for a gain of $1716 or 19%, which is 5% / year across the life of the portfolio. Go here to see detail, or use the link on the right.
We had $157 in dividends and a sale of TTM for a long term gain of $35. The portfolio has bounced back from February market activity and is doing OK.
Portfolio Five is 8 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000, for a total of $13,500. The current value is $16,640 for a gain of 23%, which is 4.1% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. You can see portfolio five details here or go to the link on the right.
This year we sold 2 stocks, TTM and SAVE, for a short term tax loss of ($78) and a long term gain of $24. We also had $291 in dividends.
The portfolio is generally doing pretty well and came back a bit from the early February market activity. We are watching JNPR because it may be in play as a takeover candidate.