Portfolio Six is 9 1/2 years old. The trustee contributed $10,000 and the beneficiary $5000 for a total of $15,000. The current value is $25,192 for a gain of $10,192 or 68%, which is 9.2% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. You can see performance here or on the link on the right.
Some stocks are on watch. Paypal (PYPL) had a huge price crash based on forward guidance (not a change in their business model), dropping more than 60% from its highs. OKTA (OKTA) is down about 40% off its highs, along with more of the speculative tech stocks (those that trade at a multiple of revenues not earnings). Some other stocks have gone off their recent highs but still trade at significant increases from where we’ve bought them (TSM and NVDA).
Portfolio One is our longest lived portfolio. It is 19 years old. The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $19,000 for a total of $24,000. The current value is $72,519 for a gain of $48,519 or 202%, which is 8.6% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. You can see details here or at the link on the right.
Portfolio one has 20 stocks. The major gains have come from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), PayPal (PYPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Procter & Gamble (PG). Other winners include Alibaba (BABA), Accenture (ACN), Infosys (INFY), Toyota (TM), and American Electric Power (AEP). Stocks hitting recent bumps include EA (earnings), CME (ZIRP), SAP (earnings), and BABA (delay of ANT IPO).
Portfolio Six is eight years old. The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000 for a total of $13,500. The current value is $20,150 for a gain of $6,650 or 49%, which is 8% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows. Go to the link on the right or here to see the details.
Gains have come from OKTA (OKTA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), Nvidia (NVDA), Union Pacific (UNP) and Procter and Gamble (PG). There are a total of 13 stocks in the portfolio; the others are doing OK or it is too early to tell.
Portfolio seven is five years old. The trustee contributed $6000 and the beneficiary contributed $3000 for a total of $9000. The current value is $13,919 for a gain of $4,919 or 57%, which is 13% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. Go to the link on the right or here to see the details.
Portfolio gains have been driven by Mastercard (MA), Alibaba (BABA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and PayPal (PYPL). There are 10 stocks in the portfolio. The other stocks are doing OK or it is too early to tell.
The stock market has recovered almost all of the losses incurred with the pandemic. From peak to trough (Feb 2020 to March 2020) we lost about 23% of our value. Today, we are down about 7% from peak. Our percentages do not completely align with the market because some portfolios hold up to 20% cash and some bond investments (BND ETF from Vanguard) and Gold (IAU ETF ticker). This performance generally aligns with riding the market down and then back up again.
Whether by luck or design, our portfolios did not hold most of the industries that bore the brunt of the Covid impact, like airlines, hotels, and commodities. We did have some stocks that we recently sold in some of these hard hit areas.
I reviewed the rest of the portfolio and we are continually “pruning down” the list of stocks that we hold. There are about 30 stocks held across the portfolio right now, down from about 40 or so in the relatively recent past. This does not include ETF’s.
The stocks that have driven the most value in the portfolio that are not bought across all the portfolio (because every beneficiary selects individually) are:
- Electronic Arts (EA) – videogames
- Mastercard (MA) – electronic payments & credit cards
- CME Group (CME) – financial services
- Alibaba (BABA) – Chinese e-commerce giant
- Nvida (NVDA) – semiconductors
- OKTA (OKTA) – SAAS provider of security services
- Paypal (PYPL) – electronic payments
- Procter & Gamble (PG) – iconic brand company
- Taiwan Semi-conductor (TSM) – semiconductors
- Union Pacific (UNP) – Railways
- Gold ETF (IAU) – tracks price of gold
If the portfolios that are selecting new stocks don’t currently own one of the stocks listed above, they may want to consider buying them.
New stocks for May 2020:
- Carrier (CARR) – manufacture and sale of Heating and cooling systems (HVAC). Recently spun out from a conglomerate
- Facebook (FB) – owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp seems to have recovered from past controversies
- Cloudflare (NET) – security and edge networking has been growing with the crisis
Stocks To Pick:
Portfolio Four – select three stocks
Portfolio Five – select two stocks
Portfolio Six – select one stock
Stocks to choose from for 2018:
- CME Group (CME) – a financial firm that trades and clears futures products and has a high dividend (they have an annual dividend plus a special year end dividend of 3.5%+ in total). They make money from trade volume which tends to increase in times of volatility or disruption in the markets, and are thus kind of a “hedge”
- PayPal (PYPL) – PayPal spun off from eBay and makes more money as the world moves to digital payment methods from cash. They also own Venmo which they have yet to monetize (existing stock owned by Portfolio One)
- Union Pacific (UNP) – Union Pacific is a large and well-run railroad company (existing stock owned by Portfolios Five and Six)
- Electronic Arts (EA) – An American video game developer that has been hit lately but could be a bet on the potential of this sector and streaming
- Inditex (IDEXY) – this Spanish company is known in the USA as “Zara” and is a leader in “fast fashion” and integrating e-commerce with direct retail
- Alibaba (BABA) – the Chinese e-commerce giant has been growing and expanding into different domains (existing stock owned by Portfolios Three and Seven)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) – this manufacturer of semiconductors counts Apple as a large customer and has been doing very well for many years (existing stock owned by Portfolio One)
- Infosys (INFY) – Indian outsourcer and technology company has been doing well and benefits from the weaker Indian currency (existing stock owned by Portfolios One and Three). Note – this stock just split 2/1 effective 9/12 so the price history will look strange if you see it online
- Gold ETF (IAU) – this ETF tracks the price of gold. Gold does not provide a dividend but could be a hedge against inflation or disruption
Between the eight portfolios, there are almost 40 different stocks to follow. Generally, we select “new” stocks rather than re-recommend existing stocks. However, for this round, we will have some “new” stocks but also continue to recommend some existing stocks that the portfolios can choose from. This will slow the overall growth of stocks across all the portfolios which will make it simpler to track.
We will continue to recommend a mix of US and foreign stocks to choose from, although each portfolio can select whatever they’d like (they don’t have to split their investments equally between both). Recently the US dollar has gone up, resulting in (relatively) poorer performance for foreign stocks. However, this can change and these are long-term portfolios so we recommend US and foreign stocks rather than taking an effective “position” on the future direction of US currency (i.e. if you thought the dollar was going up indefinitely you would buy US based assets exclusively). Folks often fail to remember the past, when the US dollar fell for years against many different currencies.