Portfolio Eight Updated January 2022

Portfolio eight is 6 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3500 and the trustee $7000 for a total of $10,500.  The current value is $18,548 for a gain of $8,048 or 76%, which is 14% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for a summary or to the link.

This year we sold Baozun and Sumo Logic and bought Nike, Square / Block and Tesla.  Nvidia also split shares.

The portfolio is doing well.  There are gains in Nvidia, Mastercard and Paypal (even though Paypal is down recently with hits to the software companies and payment processors).

Portfolio Six Updated January 2022

Portfolio Six is nine years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $28,020 which is a gain of $13,020 or 87%, which is 11.1% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for a summary or to the link.

This year we sold three stocks (Facebook, Sumo Logic and Baozun) and bought three stocks (Intel, Paypal and L’Oreal).  Nvidia (NVDA) also split shares.

The portfolio is overall doing well.  The largest gains have been tied to NVDA, OKTA, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Union Pacific (UNP) and Procter & Gamble).

Portfolio Five Updated January 2022

Portfolio Five is 12 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6500 and the trustee $13,000 for a total of $19,500.  The current value is $40,195 for a gain of $20,695 which is 106% or 9.9% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for a summary or to the link on the left.

This year we had three sales – Alibaba (BABA) for a small gain, Sumo for a small loss, and Baozun (BZUN) for a larger loss.

We purchased 6 new stocks – Appian (APPN), Activision / Blizzard (ATVI), Intel (INTC), Snap, Block (formerly Square) (SQ), and Tesla (TSLA).

Generally the portfolio has been doing well.  There are 19 stocks in the portfolio and it is quite diverse.

Recently we’ve seen declines in some former high flyers Cloudflare (NET), Paypal (PYPL), and OKTA (OKTA).  We saw some new highs with Infosys (INFY), Union Pacific (UNP) and Procter and Gamble (PG).

June Performance Summary

Stock_Performance_July_2021

Our portfolios continue to perform well, like the overall market.  We are up about 30% over the last year, net of contributions.   US markets are up around 40% during that period, but our portfolios are about 20% cash / gold along with non-US stocks so it is roughly equivalent.

There are a few stocks that haven’t performed as well as the market as of late; Alibaba (BABA) the Chinese internet giant, SUMO Logic (SUMO) the cloud analytics company, and Baozun (BZUN) the Chinese e-commerce fulfillment company.  However, the performance wasn’t terrible for these 3 companies, just not nearly as good as the overall market.

We are looking at companies to consider buying for the summer investment round.  I am performing research now on candidates.

This year we moved three of the accounts over to “limited agency” status from trust funds; this has become necessary as the beneficiaries get older.  This is a one-time effort that took some time given that the steps are not simple nor clearly laid out.  Even today I noted that many of the individual stocks were set to reinvest dividends, which I turned off because it causes challenges in tracking and is minor in the grand scheme if you reinvest cash regularly (as we do with new investments).

April Performance Review

Performance_April_2021

Since our last updated in mid-February (approximately the market “top”), the value of our positions has declined by about 5% overall, with some portfolios hardly moving and others declining over 10%. The differences were driven by:

  • What percent of the portfolio is in cash or bonds – 25+% portfolio two, 30+% portfolio three, 20%+ portfolio four, with the heavier the cash and bond weighting the lower the decline
  • Amount of high growth stocks in portfolio – certain stocks that have been great performers that are considered “growth” and generally trade as a multiple of sales (say 20-30x sales) such as Tesla (TSLA) and Cloudflare (NET) and Sumo (SUMO) fell as the market moved from growth to value in the first quarter

Given that these portfolios represent a log-term investment for each of the participants and would be a portion of their total net worth (i.e. they often hold other cash in savings or other accounts), we try to be reasonably heavily invested in the market, but each participant has their own risk tolerance.

During this rotation into value stocks, some sectors which had been battered such as energy (Exxon-Mobil and Chevron) and Financials and some general retail have come back strong. There are many of these stocks in the portfolios (such as Coca-Cola, Procter and Gamble, and many others) but they generally represent a lower portion of the total “value” because the tech stocks have risen so much that their position size is much bigger.

We also see variances by region, with Chinese stocks rising and US stocks generally rising (at least in some sectors) but European stocks stagnant. Since these portfolios seek to choose both US and overseas stocks, we also will see changes in value based on changes in currencies and country-specific dynamics. We do not intend to “predict” which ones will rise and fall, but we encourage a balanced mix of stocks by sector and region / currency where possible.

Some specific stocks have fallen and are “on watch”, including:

  • Alibaba (BABA) – a well run Chinese company with huge cloud presence (like AWS) and a giant financial arm (called ANT), this group has run afoul of regulators and Chinese politics.  It is down about 25% from its high
  • Cloudflare (NET) – Cloudflare runs an advanced online system and trades for more than 30x revenues… making it susceptible to falling when it doesn’t perform exceedingly well in revenue growth or when interest rates increase.  It is down about 20% off its high
  • Tesla (TSLA) – the grand-daddy of all stock high flyers is down about 20% from recent peaks
  • Sumo Logic (SUMO) – SUMO has lost about half its value from peak recently.  While SUMO is still growing quickly, it recently acquired a company and is not exceeding expectations
  • Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun, the Chinese e-commerce support company, is down about 30% off recent highs.  The company was part of a short squeeze and impacted by US / China relations overall, but core operations are solid
  • Gilead (GILD) – this large pharma stock has lost about 20% of its value, despite having high earnings and dividends.  It does not play significantly in the covid space and is a bet for focus on other drugs and treatments in the post-covid era.

By portfolio:

  • Portfolio one -BABA, NET
  • Portfolio two – BABA, NET
  • Portfolio four – TSLA, NET
  • Portfolio five – SUMO, NET, BABA, BZUN
  • Portfolio six – BZUN, GILD, SUMO
  • Portfolio seven – BABA, BZUN, SUMO
  • Portfolio eight – BZUN, SUMO