Portfolio Performance As of May 2020 and Replacement Stock Selections

The stock market has recovered almost all of the losses incurred with the pandemic.  From peak to trough (Feb 2020 to March 2020) we lost about 23% of our value.  Today, we are down about 7% from peak.  Our percentages do not completely align with the market because some portfolios hold up to 20% cash and some bond investments (BND ETF from Vanguard) and Gold (IAU ETF ticker).  This performance generally aligns with riding the market down and then back up again.Portfolio Performance May 10 2020

Whether by luck or design, our portfolios did not hold most of the industries that bore the brunt of the Covid impact, like airlines, hotels, and commodities. We did have some stocks that we recently sold in some of these hard hit areas.

I reviewed the rest of the portfolio and we are continually “pruning down” the list of stocks that we hold. There are about 30 stocks held across the portfolio right now, down from about 40 or so in the relatively recent past. This does not include ETF’s.

The stocks that have driven the most value in the portfolio that are not bought across all the portfolio (because every beneficiary selects individually) are:

  • Electronic Arts (EA) – videogames
  • Mastercard (MA) – electronic payments & credit cards
  • CME Group (CME) – financial services
  • Alibaba (BABA) – Chinese e-commerce giant
  • Nvida (NVDA) – semiconductors
  • OKTA (OKTA) – SAAS provider of security services
  • Paypal (PYPL) – electronic payments
  • Procter & Gamble (PG) – iconic brand company
  • Taiwan Semi-conductor (TSM) – semiconductors
  • Union Pacific (UNP) – Railways
  • Gold ETF (IAU) – tracks price of gold

If the portfolios that are selecting new stocks don’t currently own one of the stocks listed above, they may want to consider buying them.

New stocks for May 2020:

  • Carrier (CARR) – manufacture and sale of Heating and cooling systems (HVAC).  Recently spun out from a conglomerate
  • Facebook (FB) – owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp seems to have recovered from past controversies
  • Cloudflare (NET) – security and edge networking has been growing with the crisis

Stocks To Pick:

Portfolio Four – select three stocks

Portfolio Five – select two stocks

Portfolio Six – select one stock

Portfolio Five Updated December 2019

Portfolio 5 is 10 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500.  The current value is $21,627 for a gain of $5,127 or 31%, which is 4.5% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See the details here or at the link on the right.

Bigger gains came from Appian (APPN), Union Pacific (UNP), and Procter and Gamble (PG).  There are 17 stocks in the portfolio.

 

Portfolio Four Updated December 2019

Portfolio Four is 10 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500.  The current value is $22,566 for a gain of $6,016 or 37%, which is 5.1% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see a summary here or at the link on the right.

The portfolio has 19 stocks.  Big gains have come from Appian (APPN), Elbit Systems (ESLT), Procter & Gamble (PG), Oracle (ORCL) and Wal-Mart (WMT).  It is important to factor in the impact of dividends on stocks held a long time; for example Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) and Westpac (WBK) look like “losers” from a stock price perspective – but when dividends are (properly) included, they move into the winning column.

Portfolio Six Updated December 2019

Portfolio six is seven years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4000 and the trusted $8000 for a total of $12,000.  The current value is $14,495 for a gain of $2,495 or 21% which is 4.2% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the details here or at the link on the right.

The gains in this portfolio come from Procter and Gamble (PG), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), and Elbit Systems (ESLT).  There are 13 stocks in the portfolio.