Portfolio Seven Updated April 2022

Portfolio Seven is 6 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3500 and the trustee $7000 for a total of $10,500.  The current value is $12,542 for a gain of $2,042 or 19%, which is 4% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See here or the link on the right for the details.

This portfolio was hit by some recent stock drops.

  • PayPal (PYPL) had a bad earnings call and limited forward guidance of profits and the stock dropped a lot.  We will be re-evaluating this stock.
  • Recent acquisitions Block (SQ) and Nike (NKE) fell with the market after we bought them
  • Alibaba (BABA) the massive Chinese e-commerce company has been buffeted by the deteriorating relationship between China & the USA and a crack down on tech companies in that country as well

We will look at what to do about these stocks.

Portfolio Seven Updated January 2022

Portfolio Seven is 6 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3500 and the trustee $7000 for a total of $10,500.  The current value is $14,317 for a gain of $3817 or 36%, which is 7.8% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for a summary or to the link.

This year we sold Bauzon (BZUN) and Sumo Logic (SUMO) and bought Nike (NKE), Block / Square (SQ), and Tesla (TSLA).

Gains have primarily come from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), PayPal (PYPL) and Mastercard (MA). PayPal is down about 40% recently with the reduction in payment and tech stocks but still is well run, but something to watch. We should strongly consider selling Alibaba (BABA) the regulatory climate in China is very harsh right now (may also be a long term buying opportunity).

Remaining Stock Selections

We have some outstanding investments to consider for 2021.

Portfolio Five

There are stocks in this portfolio to strongly consider selling.

  • SUMO – while the SAAS / analytics sector has seen strong performance, SUMO has performed poorly.  This is a stock to strongly consider selling
  • Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun is a Chinese e-commerce enablement company.  Whether due to China market / regulatory challenges or company growth, it is time to sell this stock
  • Alibaba (BABA) – Alibaba has gone down significantly.  Unlike the other stocks on this sell list, I think Alibaba has a very large and important business for the long term, as a leading cloud platform / e-commerce platform.  They also own a valuable financial business.  Can keep or sell

There will be up to $10k – $11k to invest depending on the sales up above (there was $9k in the cash account due to our selling of Appian (APPN) earlier this year when it hit a brief peak).  This could be 5 or 6 stocks depending on the size, or a stock with a double purchase.

  • Tesla (TSLA) and / or Toyota (TM) – the best run / most profitable companies in the space are Tesla on the electric car space and Toyota on the gas / electric combination play.  While almost all other car makers in the world are betting almost solely on electric cars with the next generation moves, Toyota continues to believe in a future for gas powered vehicles which makes sense because it will be decades or longer before a reliable electric infrastructure girds the globe (think Africa / Asia, for instance)
  • Pinduoduo (PDD) – the Chinese stock market has been pummeled with regulatory changes and cold-war rhetoric.  This may also be an opportunity to buy a valuable and innovative e-commerce company at a discount
  • Rocket Mortgage (RKT) – Rocket was briefly a target of a meme-stock rally and then fell but this obscures that this is a “real” company with a 7% dividend and a solid position in the US mortgage market.  This may be a long term stock to buy at a decent down price
  • Kraft-Heinz (KHC) – Kraft-Heinz fell and had a significant write off.  The company is well run and has a new plan and solid dividend.  They provide essential food staples around the world
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) – this stock is an essential company in the middle of a global chip shortage but also tied to bellicose behavior from China.  May be an opportunity to purchase it at a discount
  • Nike (NKE) – the global footwear leader just released earnings and said that the global supply chain difficulties would hit revenues temporarily.  Seems like an opportunity to buy a solid company at a discount
  • Uber (UBER) – the ride sharing company had missteps in the past but has changed management and is well positioned to go on a big run of earnings as the economy opens up
  • Square (SQ) – a well run and very interesting company in the financial space that is also moving into deferred payments (essentially loans) and bitcoin

Portfolio Seven:

There are stocks in this portfolio to strongly consider selling.

  • SUMO – while the SAAS / analytics sector has seen strong performance, SUMO has performed poorly.  This is a stock to strongly consider selling
  • Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun is a Chinese e-commerce enablement company.  Whether due to China market / regulatory challenges or company growth, it is time to sell this stock
  • Alibaba (BABA) – Alibaba has gone down significantly.  Unlike the other stocks on this sell list, I think Alibaba has a very large and important business for the long term, as a leading cloud platform / e-commerce platform.  They also own a valuable financial business.  Can keep or sell

If these stocks were sold there would be funds available for 3 purchases.  Here are some ideas:

  • Nike (NKE) – the global footwear leader just released earnings and said that the global supply chain difficulties would hit revenues temporarily.  Seems like an opportunity to buy a solid company at a discount
  • Tesla (TSLA) and / or Toyota (TM) – the best run / most profitable companies in the space are Tesla on the electric car space and Toyota on the gas / electric combination play.  While almost all other car makers in the world are betting almost solely on electric cars with the next generation moves, Toyota continues to believe in a future for gas powered vehicles which makes sense because it will be decades or longer before a reliable electric infrastructure girds the globe (think Africa / Asia, for instance)
  • Uber (UBER) – the ride sharing company had missteps in the past but has changed management and is well positioned to go on a big run of earnings as the economy opens up
  • Square (SQ) – a well run and very interesting company in the financial space that is also moving into deferred payments (essentially loans) and bitcoin
  • Chevron (CX) – a fuels company that is well run and has taken over the lead company in this space from Exxon Mobil (XOM)
  • L’Oreal (LRLCY) – the French cosmetics firm has a global footprint and has really embraced digital and modern methods during the pandemic

Portfolio Eight:

There are stocks in this portfolio to strongly consider selling.

  • SUMO – while the SAAS / analytics sector has seen strong performance, SUMO has performed poorly.  This is a stock to strongly consider selling
  • Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun is a Chinese e-commerce enablement company.  Whether due to China market / regulatory challenges or company growth, it is time to sell this stock

If these stocks were sold there would be funds available for 2 purchases.  Here are some ideas:

  • Nike (NKE) – the global footwear leader just released earnings and said that the global supply chain difficulties would hit revenues temporarily.  Seems like an opportunity to buy a solid company at a discount
  • Square (SQ) – a well run and very interesting company in the financial space that is also moving into deferred payments (essentially loans) and bitcoin
  • Chevron (CX) – a fuels company that is well run and has taken over the lead company in this space from Exxon Mobil (XOM)
  • Pinduoduo (PDD) – the Chinese stock market has been pummeled with regulatory changes and cold-war rhetoric.  This may also be an opportunity to buy a valuable and innovative e-commerce company at a discount
  • L’Oreal (LRLCY) – the French cosmetics firm has a global footprint and has really embraced digital and modern methods during the pandemic
  • Uber (UBER) – the ride sharing company had missteps in the past but has changed management and is well positioned to go on a big run of earnings as the economy opens up

Portfolio Seven Updated July 2021

Portfolio seven is almost six years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3000 and the trustee $6000 for a total of $9000.  The current value is $15,466 for a gain of $6,466 or 71%, which is 15.7% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for details or to the link on the right.

The portfolio is doing well overall but we are looking at Alibaba (BABA) which is a giant company doing well but buffered by changing regulations in China, and Baozun the e-commerce enablement firm in China as well.  Will look at plans and may consider selling them.

Portfolio Seven Updated March, 2021

Portfolio 7 is 5 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $3000 and the trustee $6000 for a total of $9000. The current value is $16,157 for a gain of $7,157 or 80%, which is 17% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. See the details here or at the link on the right.

The portfolio is doing well. During 2020 we had a long term loss of $558 for taxes (sell GM) and $121 in dividends.

Portfolio Seven Updated November 2020

Portfolio seven is five years old.  The trustee contributed $6000 and the beneficiary contributed $3000 for a total of $9000.  The current value is $13,919 for a gain of $4,919 or 57%, which is 13% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go to the link on the right or here to see the details.

Portfolio gains have been driven by Mastercard (MA), Alibaba (BABA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and PayPal (PYPL).  There are 10 stocks in the portfolio.  The other stocks are doing OK or it is too early to tell.

Portfolio Seven Updated August 2020

Portfolio Seven is five years old. The beneficiary contributed $2500 and the trusted $5000 for a total of $7500. The current value is $12,265, for a gain of $4,765 of 64% which is 16.8% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. See the detail here or at the link.

This portfolio has 8 stocks. 74% of these stocks are Information Technology related, which has done very well recently but also is a large concentration for a portfolio.

Portfolio Seven Updated June 2020

Portfolio Seven is 4 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $2500 and the trustee $5000 for a total of $7500.  The current value is $10,040 for a gain of $2540 or 34%, which is 9.8% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the summary here or at the link.

We recently sold GM and held the cash we will combine it with the 2020 contributions to buy larger stock positions (around $1000 / each).

Portfolio Seven Updated February 2020

Portfolio seven is 4 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $2500 and the trustee $5000 for a total of $7500.  The current value is $10,955 for a gain of $3455 or 46% which is 12.9% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the detail here or at the link on the page.

During 2019 we did not have any sales for tax purposes, but we did have about $107 in dividends.

Right now the portfolio is doing well.  There are 2 stocks to keep an eye on:

  • Baozun (BZUN) – Chinese e-commerce company seems well run but has been hit by Chinese events
  • General Motors (GM) – world wide iconic car maker has a good dividend but has been hit by recent events in China.  They have also been making pre-emptive efforts to cut costs

 

Portfolio Seven Updated December 2019

Portfolio seven is more than 4 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $2500 and the trustee $5000 for a total of $7500.  The current value is $10,526 for a gain of $3,026 or 40%, which is 11.5% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See details here or at the link on the right.

Portfolio seven’s gains to date have mainly come from Mastercard the credit card company and Alibaba the Chinese e-commerce giant.

Portfolio Seven Updated May 2019

Portfolio Seven is almost 4 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $2000 and the trustee $4000 for a total of $6000.  Current value is $7846 for a gain of $1846 or 30%, which is about 11% / year over the life of the fund.  See here for details or at the link on the right.  We will look at whether or not to sell General Motors (GM) and Baozun (BZUN) before buying new stocks in the summer.

Portfolio Seven Updated December 2018

Portfolio Seven is three years old.  The beneficiary contributed $2000 and the trustee $4000 for a total of $6000.  Current value is $7000 for a gain of $1000 or 17%, which is about 6.2% / year over the life of the fund.  See here for details or at the link on the right.

We have some stocks on watch:

  • Baozun (BZUN) – a Chinese e-commerce enablement fun has gone down recently tied to a slow down in growth for China overall.   On watch
  • General Motors (GM) – has fallen about 20% recently and taken hard steps including layoffs to get ahead of slowing car demand
  • Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks

Portfolio 7 Updated August 2018

Portfolio 7 is 3 years old.  The beneficiary invested $1500, the trustee $3000, for a total of $4500.  The current value is $6412 for a gain of $1912 or 42%, which works out to 18% / year over the life of the fund.  See details here or go to the link on the right.

There are a couple stocks on watch:

  • Baozun (BZUN) is a Chinese internet company which recently has gone down about 20% along with the rest of the Chinese market
  • General Motors (GM) is the US auto maker with a strong overseas presence; auto stocks too recently dropped about 20% in a sell-off

Portfolio Seven Updated Feb 2018, and It’s Tax Time

Portfolio 7 is 3 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $1500 and the trustee $3000 for a total of $4500.  The current value is $5991 for a gain of $1491 or 33%, or about 14% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for portfolio detail or go to the link on the right.

During 2017 we sold Spirit Airlines (SAVE) for a long term capital loss of $84 and had dividends of $40.  The portfolio is doing well, with holdings in BABA (Alibaba) and MA (Mastercard) doing very well.  The portfolio has mostly recovered from early February market activity.

Portfolio Seven Updated August 2017

Portfolio Seven is 2 years old.  The trustee invested $2000 and the beneficiary $1000 for a total of $3000.  The current value is $4209 for a gain of $1209 or 40%, which is 24% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the detail here or in the link to the right.

When you have a portfolio with only 4 stocks like this one, an increase in a single stock can impact your performance (positively or negatively).  In this case Alibaba (BABA) the Chinese e-commerce giant has done very well which has accounted for 2/3 of the total growth in portfolio value.

We have one stock “on watch” which is Spirit Airlines (SAVE).  The stock is down about 40% from its high price.  We are considering selling this or holding on as it competes with other airlines.