Portfolio Five Updated January 2022

Portfolio Five is 12 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6500 and the trustee $13,000 for a total of $19,500.  The current value is $40,195 for a gain of $20,695 which is 106% or 9.9% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for a summary or to the link on the left.

This year we had three sales – Alibaba (BABA) for a small gain, Sumo for a small loss, and Baozun (BZUN) for a larger loss.

We purchased 6 new stocks – Appian (APPN), Activision / Blizzard (ATVI), Intel (INTC), Snap, Block (formerly Square) (SQ), and Tesla (TSLA).

Generally the portfolio has been doing well.  There are 19 stocks in the portfolio and it is quite diverse.

Recently we’ve seen declines in some former high flyers Cloudflare (NET), Paypal (PYPL), and OKTA (OKTA).  We saw some new highs with Infosys (INFY), Union Pacific (UNP) and Procter and Gamble (PG).

Remaining Stock Selections

We have some outstanding investments to consider for 2021.

Portfolio Five

There are stocks in this portfolio to strongly consider selling.

  • SUMO – while the SAAS / analytics sector has seen strong performance, SUMO has performed poorly.  This is a stock to strongly consider selling
  • Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun is a Chinese e-commerce enablement company.  Whether due to China market / regulatory challenges or company growth, it is time to sell this stock
  • Alibaba (BABA) – Alibaba has gone down significantly.  Unlike the other stocks on this sell list, I think Alibaba has a very large and important business for the long term, as a leading cloud platform / e-commerce platform.  They also own a valuable financial business.  Can keep or sell

There will be up to $10k – $11k to invest depending on the sales up above (there was $9k in the cash account due to our selling of Appian (APPN) earlier this year when it hit a brief peak).  This could be 5 or 6 stocks depending on the size, or a stock with a double purchase.

  • Tesla (TSLA) and / or Toyota (TM) – the best run / most profitable companies in the space are Tesla on the electric car space and Toyota on the gas / electric combination play.  While almost all other car makers in the world are betting almost solely on electric cars with the next generation moves, Toyota continues to believe in a future for gas powered vehicles which makes sense because it will be decades or longer before a reliable electric infrastructure girds the globe (think Africa / Asia, for instance)
  • Pinduoduo (PDD) – the Chinese stock market has been pummeled with regulatory changes and cold-war rhetoric.  This may also be an opportunity to buy a valuable and innovative e-commerce company at a discount
  • Rocket Mortgage (RKT) – Rocket was briefly a target of a meme-stock rally and then fell but this obscures that this is a “real” company with a 7% dividend and a solid position in the US mortgage market.  This may be a long term stock to buy at a decent down price
  • Kraft-Heinz (KHC) – Kraft-Heinz fell and had a significant write off.  The company is well run and has a new plan and solid dividend.  They provide essential food staples around the world
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) – this stock is an essential company in the middle of a global chip shortage but also tied to bellicose behavior from China.  May be an opportunity to purchase it at a discount
  • Nike (NKE) – the global footwear leader just released earnings and said that the global supply chain difficulties would hit revenues temporarily.  Seems like an opportunity to buy a solid company at a discount
  • Uber (UBER) – the ride sharing company had missteps in the past but has changed management and is well positioned to go on a big run of earnings as the economy opens up
  • Square (SQ) – a well run and very interesting company in the financial space that is also moving into deferred payments (essentially loans) and bitcoin

Portfolio Seven:

There are stocks in this portfolio to strongly consider selling.

  • SUMO – while the SAAS / analytics sector has seen strong performance, SUMO has performed poorly.  This is a stock to strongly consider selling
  • Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun is a Chinese e-commerce enablement company.  Whether due to China market / regulatory challenges or company growth, it is time to sell this stock
  • Alibaba (BABA) – Alibaba has gone down significantly.  Unlike the other stocks on this sell list, I think Alibaba has a very large and important business for the long term, as a leading cloud platform / e-commerce platform.  They also own a valuable financial business.  Can keep or sell

If these stocks were sold there would be funds available for 3 purchases.  Here are some ideas:

  • Nike (NKE) – the global footwear leader just released earnings and said that the global supply chain difficulties would hit revenues temporarily.  Seems like an opportunity to buy a solid company at a discount
  • Tesla (TSLA) and / or Toyota (TM) – the best run / most profitable companies in the space are Tesla on the electric car space and Toyota on the gas / electric combination play.  While almost all other car makers in the world are betting almost solely on electric cars with the next generation moves, Toyota continues to believe in a future for gas powered vehicles which makes sense because it will be decades or longer before a reliable electric infrastructure girds the globe (think Africa / Asia, for instance)
  • Uber (UBER) – the ride sharing company had missteps in the past but has changed management and is well positioned to go on a big run of earnings as the economy opens up
  • Square (SQ) – a well run and very interesting company in the financial space that is also moving into deferred payments (essentially loans) and bitcoin
  • Chevron (CX) – a fuels company that is well run and has taken over the lead company in this space from Exxon Mobil (XOM)
  • L’Oreal (LRLCY) – the French cosmetics firm has a global footprint and has really embraced digital and modern methods during the pandemic

Portfolio Eight:

There are stocks in this portfolio to strongly consider selling.

  • SUMO – while the SAAS / analytics sector has seen strong performance, SUMO has performed poorly.  This is a stock to strongly consider selling
  • Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun is a Chinese e-commerce enablement company.  Whether due to China market / regulatory challenges or company growth, it is time to sell this stock

If these stocks were sold there would be funds available for 2 purchases.  Here are some ideas:

  • Nike (NKE) – the global footwear leader just released earnings and said that the global supply chain difficulties would hit revenues temporarily.  Seems like an opportunity to buy a solid company at a discount
  • Square (SQ) – a well run and very interesting company in the financial space that is also moving into deferred payments (essentially loans) and bitcoin
  • Chevron (CX) – a fuels company that is well run and has taken over the lead company in this space from Exxon Mobil (XOM)
  • Pinduoduo (PDD) – the Chinese stock market has been pummeled with regulatory changes and cold-war rhetoric.  This may also be an opportunity to buy a valuable and innovative e-commerce company at a discount
  • L’Oreal (LRLCY) – the French cosmetics firm has a global footprint and has really embraced digital and modern methods during the pandemic
  • Uber (UBER) – the ride sharing company had missteps in the past but has changed management and is well positioned to go on a big run of earnings as the economy opens up

Portfolio Five Updated July 2021

Portfolio Five is almost 12 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trustee $12,000 for a total of $18,000.  The current value is $38,767 for a gain of $20,767 or 115%, which is 11.4% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the details here or at the link on the right.

The stocks in the portfolio are generally doing well.  Alibaba and Baozun have been hit with headwinds out of China.  Right now there is $7,452 in cash, mostly from the sale of Appian (APPN), which rose quickly and we sold and have not yet reinvested the funds.

It is minor and doesn’t impact value but we moved these portfolios from UTMA to owned by the beneficiary and the provider flipped all the individual stocks to reinvest dividends so now we have a lot of fractional shares.  I turned that off and it is minor in the grand scheme but an annoyance because I work here to tie out to the penny.

Portfolio Five Updated Feb 2021

Portfolio Five is 11 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trustee $12,000 for a total of $18,000. The current value is $36,700 for a gain of $18,701 or 104%, which is 10.9% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows. Go to the link on the right for details or here.

During 2020 there was a net long term gain of $5592, which mainly came from selling Appian (APPN). Dividends totaled $268.

The portfolio is going well. Big gain stocks include Cloudflare (NET), Nvidia (NVDA), Okta (OKTA), Paypal (PYPL), Infosys (INFY) and Procter and Gamble (PG). There is $7393 in cash to consider re-investing as well.

For capital gains – if your income is under $40,000 (as a single filer) in 2020 the long term capital tax rate is ZERO. Thus this was a good year to sell Appian! The long term tax rate is 15% for income > $40,000 but less than $441,000.

Portfolio Five Updated November 2020

Portfolio Five is 11 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trustee $12,000 for a total of $18,000.  The current value is $31,765 for a gain of $13,865 or 77% which is 8.5% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here or to the link on the right for more detail.

Gains in the portfolio have been driven by Appian (APPN) which has had a huge run up lately, Cloudflare (NET), Nvidia (NVDA), OKTA (OKTA), Paypal (PYPL), Alibaba (BABA), Union Pacific (UNP) and Procter and Gamble (PG). There are 17 stocks in total in the portfolio, the others are doing OK or are too new to rate. SAP (SAP) was hit recently with their earnings report but is still up overall, and Alibaba (BABA) is still up significantly but fell with the deferral of the ANT IPO.

Portfolio Five Updated August, 2020

Portfolio Five is 11 years old. The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500. The current value is $26,059 for a gain of $9,558 which is 58% or 7.4% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. See the details here or at the link.

The portfolio has 15 stocks, of which 72% are broadly categorized as Info Tech. This is a heavy concentration and exposure to this industry, although it is an area that has been performing well lately.

Portfolio Five Updated June 2020

Portfolio five is almost 11 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500.  The current value is $22,386 for a gain of $5886 or 35%, which is 5% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see a summary here or at the link.

We recently made some portfolio sales, removing some banks and a car manufacturer and European industrial conglomerate.  The portfolio is approximately 70% weighted to information technology & fintech.

Portfolio Five Updated February 2020

Portfolio 5 is 10 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500.  The current value is $22,877 for a gain of $6377 or 39% which is 5.3% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for details or to the links on the page.

In 2019 we had 3 sales for a long term loss of -$430 and $367 in dividends.

Right now we have a few stocks we are looking at:

  • Baozun (BZUN) – Chinese e-commerce enabling firm keeps getting hit by headwinds.  Well run but may sell
  • General Motors (GM) – hit by labor unrest and now Chinese issues.  Holding up OK.

Portfolio Five Updated December 2019

Portfolio 5 is 10 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500.  The current value is $21,627 for a gain of $5,127 or 31%, which is 4.5% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See the details here or at the link on the right.

Bigger gains came from Appian (APPN), Union Pacific (UNP), and Procter and Gamble (PG).  There are 17 stocks in the portfolio.

 

Portfolio Five Updated May 2019

Portfolio Five is almost 10 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $18,510 for a gain of $3,510 or 23% which is 23.8% adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see details here or on the link on the right.

Prior to making purchases in the summer of 2019 we will look at selling Baozun (BZUN), General Motors (GM), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Juniper Networks (JNPR), and Baidu (BIDU).

Portfolio Five Updated December 2018

Portfolio Five is 9 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $17,439 for a gain of $2,439 or 16% which is 2.7% adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see details here or on the link on the right.

With the recent market performance we have several stocks on watch:

  • Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks
  • Baozun (BZUN) – a Chinese e-commerce enablement fun has gone down recently tied to a slow down in growth for China overall.   On watch
  • Baidu (BIDU) – another Chinese internet company down about 30% off its peak.  Will watch like Alibaba, above
  • General Motors (GM) – has fallen about 20% recently and taken hard steps including layoffs to get ahead of slowing car demand

Portfolio Five as of August 2018

Portfolio five is nine years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000 for a total of $13,500.  The current value is $17,823 for a gain of $4,323 or 32% which is 5.5% / year after adjusting for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the detail here or on the link to the right.

There are a few stocks on watch:

  • Baozun (BZUN) – the Chinese e-commerce enablement firm is still up a lot for the year but down about 20% from a recent peak.  Likely to keep holding
  • General Motors (GM) – recently all the automakers took a hit in price.  Decent dividend and fundamentals haven’t changed much recently.  Will watch
  • Anheuser Busch Inbev (BUD) – the giant world wide beer company is well run but hasn’t had much growth in its stock price.  Will watch
  • Baidu (BIDU) – the Chinese internet stock lost about 20% of its value in the recent drop in the overall Chinese market.  Will watch

Portfolio Five Updated Feb 2018, And It’s Tax Time

Portfolio Five is 8 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000, for a total of $13,500.  The current value is $16,640 for a gain of 23%, which is 4.1% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see portfolio five details here or go to the link on the right.

This year we sold 2 stocks, TTM and SAVE, for a short term tax loss of ($78) and a long term gain of $24.  We also had $291 in dividends.

The portfolio is generally doing pretty well and came back a bit from the early February market activity.  We are watching JNPR because it may be in play as a takeover candidate.

Portfolio Five Updated August 2017

Portfolio five is 8 years old.  The trustee contributed $8000 and the beneficiary $4000 for a total of $12,000.  The current value is $14,184 for a gain of $2,184 or 18%, which works out to 4% / year.  See detail here or go to a link on the right.

We are evaluating stocks to sell prior to our summer purchases.

  • Tata (TTM) – Indian automaker who is down significantly.  Likely sell
  • Spirit Airlines (SAVE) – US discount airlines that is facing more competition and headwinds.  Possible sell
  • ConocoPhillips (COP) – integrated oil and gas company hit by falling commodity prices.  Possible sell

Portfolio Five Updated July, 2017

Portfolio Five is almost 5 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4000 and the trustee $8000, for a total of $12,000.  The current value is $14,522, for a gain of $2522 or 21%, which is about 4.3% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for details or see the link on the right of the page.

We are looking at several stocks.  ConocoPhillips (COP) has been hit hard by the decline in oil prices, but has kept a modest dividend.  Spirit Airlines (SAVE) has been a great stock but has come down recently.  Tata Motors (TTM) provides some diversity in terms of currency and emerging markets but is down about 20% from highs.  Juniper Networks (JNPR) has been doing well but long term they face risks from Amazon (AMZN) and the cloud.