Portfolio Four Updated July, 2017

Portfolio four is almost 8 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4000 and the trustee $8000 for a total of $12,000.  The current value is $15,082 for a gain of $3,082 or a 5% rate of return, adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See detailed PDF here or go to the link on the right side of the page.

The portfolio has some technology stocks that are doing quite well, which include Box and Oracle (you could also call Tesla a partial technology stock, as well).  The oil stocks of Devon, Shell and Statoil have generally been hit by the continued fall in oil prices.  The stock prices of Shell and Statoil have held up better than Devon because they kept their high dividends; Devon cut their dividend and has continued to fall (there are other factors at play as well).

It is important in all these portfolios not to just look at the current share price when compared with the purchase price; you need to take into account dividends, as well.  The oil stocks look bad on stock price alone but when cumulative dividends paid are tracked as well, the situation is much better.  That does not mean that we should hold stocks just for the dividends, but it is a very important factor in long run performance.  To date this portfolio has earned $1735 in dividends, which makes up more than half of the total return earned to date.

Portfolio Four Updated April 2017

Portfolio Four is 7 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4000 and the trustee $8000 for a total of $12,000.  The current fund value is $14,444 for a gain of $2444 or 20%, which is 4% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the detail here or go to the links on the right.

We have a couple of stocks on watch.  Devon Energy (DVN) got waxed with the downturn of the oil industry a couple of years ago and has recovered a lot of its losses but cut its dividend significantly in the interim.  DVN seems to be plateauing and is thus on watch.  Oracle (ORCL), the technology company famous for its database software (although they own many other products, including cloud software) is in a long term price and technology war with AWS and other cloud providers (including Microsoft’s Azure).  They have been performing well but are on watch as a result.

There are analytics on the “analytics” sheet.  A few worth paying attention to is the price as a % of its 52 week high, which shows its relative strength over the last year (obviously anything near 100% means that the stock is moving up and hitting highs regularly).  The portfolio is 68% US stocks and 44% of them are “high dividend” (meaning a dividend around 3% and higher).

 

Portfolio Four Updated January 2017 – Tax Time

Portfolio Four is a bit over 7 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4000 and the trustee $8000 for a total of $12,000.  The current value is $13,932 for a gain of $1932 or 16%, which is about 3.3% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the detailed spreadsheet at the link on the right or download it here.

The portfolio is generally doing well. We sold LinkedIn (LNKD) because they were bought by Microsoft and gave up on Coca Cola FEMSA (KOF) which was hurt by the decline in the Mexican Peso and recent election results.  We did not sell many of the energy companies which (mostly) held on to their high dividends and have risen recently with the uptick in oil prices.  It is important that you look at the “total return” which includes dividends because some stocks look like they have losses just based on price bought vs. today when in fact they’ve been positive due to dividends.

The portfolio had about $240 in dividends for an average yield of about 1.7%.  This is a good rate but down a bit from last year because we sold Seaspan (SSW) and Garmin (GRMN) which had high dividends.  Most of our sales are still OK in hindsight but Garmin has gone up a bit since we sold it.  We had a long term capital loss of $474 due to sales of LNKD and KOF, above.

Portfolio Four Updated March 2016 – Tax Time

Portfolios four and five are 6 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3500 and the trustee $7000 for a total of $10,500.  The current value is $10,137 for a loss of ($362) or (3.5%).  Adjusted for the timing of cash flows performance is (1%) negative a year.  See here for a spreadsheet with details or go to the link on the right.

We sold Seaspan (SSW) and Garmin (GRMN) this year.  We purchased Box (BOX), Novartis ADR (NVS), and Tesla (TSLA).

We have a number of stocks on watch.  Newly acquired Novartis (NVS) is not doing well, Coca-Cola FEMSA has been hit by exchange rates, Linked In (LKND) had a bad forward revenue guidance and their stock fell sharply on the news.  For oil companies, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), Statoil (STO) and Devon Energy (DVN) have all been hit by the falling oil price.  Devon gave up on their dividend which hit the stock hard but Shell and Statoil are making cuts and borrowing to try to keep their dividend constant.

For taxes will send along the forms which helpfully now include a cost basis.

Portfolio Four After 2015 Purchases and Sales

Portfolio Four With 2015 Purchases and Sales

Attached is a screen shot from Google Finance of Portfolio Four after 2015 purchases and sales.  New stocks include Box (BOX), Novartis (NVS), and Tata Motors (TTM).  Returns are only based on stock prices and do not include dividends (the dividend payers have higher returns).

Portfolio Four Updated October 2015

Portfolios 4 and 5 are both 6 years old.  Portfolio 4 has $3500 in beneficiary contributions and $7000 in trustee contributions for a total of $10,500.  The current value is $10,892 for a gain of $392 or 3.7%, which is about 0.9% / year.  You can see the details here or go to the links on the right.

The portfolio has several stocks that are on watch.  We have been holding on to Coca Cola Femsa (KOF) which is the Mexican coke bottler but the Mexican currency (Peso) has fallen heavily vs. the US dollar.  Devon Energy (DVN) has been hit hard by the commodity crash, although it is well run and pretty well hedged.  Garmin (GRMN) has also fallen recently on reduced earnings guidance.  Wal-Mart (WMT) is still up significantly from our purchase price but recent earnings guidance was poor and that stock fell too.  Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) and Statoil (STO) have also been impacted by falling oil prices, although Shell’s decision to stop arctic drilling is a good one from a financial perspective (the price of oil has made those wells uneconomic).  Seaspan (SSW) has a high price buoyed by a large dividend but that may not be sustainable.