Portfolio Three Updated February 2020

Portfolio three is 12 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6500 and the trustee $13,200 for a total of $19,700.  The current value is $26,940 for a gain of $7240 or 37% which is 4.4% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See details here or at the links section.

This portfolio sold off individual stocks in late 2019 and moved into ETF’s for career reasons.  The ETF’s have been doing well since their purchase in late 2019.

There will be taxes for this portfolio tied to the sales of the individual stocks sold as well as the usual dividends earned.  These will be pulled off the 1099 for year end.

Portfolio 3 Updated December 2019

Portfolio three is 12 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6500 and the trustee $13,000 for a total of $19,500.  The current value is $25,768 for a gain of $6,168 or 31%, which is 3.8% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See the details here or go to the link on the right.

This portfolio recently changed from a stock portfolio to an ETF portfolio, like Portfolio 2.  We sold off the stocks and purchased ETF’s, including 52% in equities,  10% in gold, 28% bonds, and 10% cash (currently yielding 1.7%).

ETF Portfolios and Fall 2019 Selections

We have two ETF portfolios because it is difficult for these beneficiaries to hold individual stocks because of their professions.  We moved Portfolio 2 to ETF’s several years ago and just sold the individual stocks in Portfolio 3 so that we can invest for Fall 2019 in “ETF mode”.

Portfolio two has the following ETF’s:

  • VTI – the Vanguard all US market ETF
  • VEU – the Vanguard all non-US market ETF
  • HEFA – the “hedged” non-US market (so that it is not exposed to changes in currency rates)
  • IAU – the ETF that tracks the price of gold
  • Cash – the remaining dollars (40%) are in the Vanguard money market (VMMXX), which currently returns 2% / year

The decision for Fall 2019 is whether to keep this high cash allocation or to increase the allocation for equities.

Option One – keep current allocation

Option Two – add a bond ETF.  Bond ETF’s go up when interest rates go down (as they have been doing).  We could put $5000 in BND (Total bond market ETF)

Option Three – add $5000 to VWO which is the Emerging Markets ETF (broad) from Vanguard

Option Four – add an additional $5000 to VTI, which is the US stock market ETF

Options Two – Four can all be done since there is $17,367 in cash.

Portfolio Three:

Portfolio Three has $24,561 in cash.  We need to set up ETF’s for this portfolio and can broadly follow the same model as portfolio two.

Base model:

  • VTI – US market -30% of investment
  • VEU / HEFA – 15% each (non US markets, with half hedged) for a total of 30%
  • IAU – optional, could be 10%
  • Cash or BND – could be 30%

These percentages could be changed as needed.

Portfolio Three Updated May 2019

Portfolio Three is almost 12 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trusted $12,000 for a total of $18,000.  The current value is $22,338 for a gain of $4,338 or 24%, which is 3.3% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See the details here or go to the links on the left.

We will look at selling Smart Global Holdings (SGH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Baidu (BIDU) prior to making our summer 2019 purchases.

Portfolio Three Updated December 2018

Portfolio Three is 11 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trusted $12,000 for a total of $18,000.  The current value is $21,710 for a gain of $3,710 or 21%, which is 2.9% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See the details here or go to the links on the left.

There are a few stocks we are looking at in the current market environment:

  • Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell
  • Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks
  • Facebook (FB) – it has been a bad year for Facebook and the stock is down about 30% off its highs.  Still strong financial performance, will watch
  • Baidu (BIDU) – another Chinese internet company down about 30% off its peak.  Will watch like Alibaba, above
  • ABB (ABB) – European industrial conglomerate which has fallen about 20% since we’ve bought it

Portfolio Three Updated August 2018

Portfolio three is 11 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500.  The current value is $23,170 for a gain of 40% or 5.6% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the data here or at the link on the right.

We have a few stocks that we are considering selling now.

  1. ABB (ABB) – ABB is a European conglomerate with a new CEO that is well run.  Down about 20% from 52 week high but too early to sell (just bought it last year)
  2. DowDuPont (DWDP) – this chemical company is performing well.  We will likely sell it before it splits into 3 stocks in 2019
  3. Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu is a large internet company in China.  It is down about 20% from 52 week high.  Will probably keep
  4. Elbit Systems (ESLT) – Elbit is an Israeli defense contractor.  They are doing well operationally but are down about 20% from a recent peak.  Probably will hold on to it
  5. Wal-Mart (WMT) – Wal-Mart is well run but in the fight for its’ life against Amazon.  May want to take our winnings and go. Stock recently rallied…

None of these are immediate sells but ones to consider.

Portfolio Three Updated February 2018, and It’s Tax Time

Portfolio three is 10 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500.  The current value is $23,251 for a gain of $6751 or 41%, which is 5.6% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows. Click here for details or use the link on the right.

During 2017 there were no sales and there was dividends of approximately $322.  The portfolio is generally doing OK and has bounced back from the recent market activity.

Portfolio Three Updated August 2017

Portfolio Three is 10 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  Current value is $19,143 for a gain of $4143 or 27%, which is 4% / year across the life of the fund.  See the details here or in the links on the right.

We have added some new, central analytics to this portfolio.  There are 3 stocks that we are looking at right now for being 80% – 89% of their 52 week high…

  1. ConocoPhilips (COP) – COP is an oil and gas company with a strong dividend.  It is at risk due to continuing low oil and gas prices.  We will consider selling it now
  2. Siemens (SIEGY) – Siemens is a successful European conglomerate with a strong dividend.  The stock is not far off 5 year highs, but down about 10-15% off recent peaks.  We will likely hold onto this stock
  3. Exxon (XOM) – Exxon is a lightning-rod political stock.  They are a well run company near their 5 year lows, hit by low prices for oil and gas.  We will consider selling it, but less likely than COP (above)

Portfolio 3 Updated April 2017

Portfolio 3 is 9 1/2 years old.  The trustee contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $17,483 for a gain of $2,483 or 16%, which is about 2.7% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the detail at the links on the right or go here.

The portfolio is generally doing well.  We will consider selling ConocoPhillips (COP) which has been selling off assets to pare down debt and reduced their dividend.  Their stock has stabilized but this may not be the best oil play.  We are also sticking with ExxonMobil (XOM) which we bought near a high because that company has proven to be well run over the last few decades.

In the new “analytics” tab you can see that this portfolio has a heavy non-US component, with 62% of stocks from non-US countries.  We have 2 of the 3 major Chinese internet companies and also 2 large Canadian banks, among others.

Portfolio Three Updated January 2017 – Tax Time

Portfolio three is our 3rd longest lived portfolio, at a bit over 9 years.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value of the portfolio is $16,551 for a gain of $1551 or 10%, which works out to about 2% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the detailed spreadsheet at the link on the right or download it here.

During 2016 we had about $280 in dividends (for a yield of about 1.7%) and had long-term capital losses on our sale of WYNN and Linked In (LNKD) which was bought by Microsoft.  Most of our sales have held up pretty well except for Weibo (WB), typically called “China’s Twitter” which went up significantly from recent lows.

Portfolio Three Updated March 2016 – Tax Time

Portfolio Three is our third longest lived portfolio, at 8 1/2 years.  The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000 for a total of $13,500.  The current value is $12,814 for a loss of ($685) or (5%).  Adjusted for the timing of cash flows, this is (1%) a year.  The detail can be found in the links on the right or here.

This year we sold Yahoo after all the drama and bought ConocoPhillips, Alibaba and Facebook.

There are a few stocks on watch.  LinkedIn (LNKD) dropped almost half its value when it issued forward earnings guidance; since then the stock has stabilized and is on watch.  I still believe in the company although many others apparently do not.  ConocoPhillips (COP) was hit immediately by the collapse in oil prices (even though we were buying it on a dip) – this is also on watch to see how they do in this difficult environment for commodity companies.  Wynn (WYNN) is a casino company with properties in Macau China catering to heavy Chinese gamblers; the crackdown on corruption has severely dampened earnings.

For taxes in 2015, there is a net loss for the year due primarily to a fall in value of Weibo (WB) which was pummeled in the great Chinese stock market rout and we sold the stock (it since gained back some of its value).  

Of the other stocks we’ve sold in recent years they are still below the price we sold them at.

Portfolio Three After 2015 Purchases and Sales

Portfolio_Three_Updated_Fall_2015

Attached is a screen shot from Google Finance of Portfolio Three after stock sales and purchases for 2015.  New stocks are Alibaba (BABA), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Facebook (FB).  The returns by stock represent stock price appreciation not dividends so dividend stocks have a higher return than listed.

Portfolio Three Updated October 2015

Portfolio three is eight years old, with the beneficiary contributing $4500 and the trustee contributing $9000, for a total of $13,500.  The current value is $13,243 for a loss of ($256) or (1.9%), which works out to an annual return that is slightly negative (0.4%) / year.  See the details here or use the links on the right.

The portfolio has had some stocks move against us lately.  Wal-Mart (WMT), an historically strong performer, recently came out with 3 year stock guidance that showed low growth and the stock went down.  Wynn (WYNN), a gambling company with strong interests in China, was also adversely hit by the Chinese governments’ crack down on money laundering and VIP gamblers.  Exxon-Mobil (XOM), the energy giant, has gone down tied with the commodity bust.  Yahoo (YHOO) is up overall but down from recent highs and is mainly a value play on its Alibaba (BABA) stake.

We will look at selling some of these stocks as part of our 2015 new stock purchase planning.

Portfolio Three Updated March, 2015 – and It’s Tax Time

Portfolio Three is our third longest portfolio, at 7 1/2 years. The beneficiary contributed $4000 and the trustee $8000 for a total of $12,000. The current value is $13,363 for a gain of $1,363 or 11% or 2.4% / year over the life of the fund. You can see the details at the link on the right or download the file here.

Portfolio Three had $213 in dividends in 2014, for a yield of approximately 1.8%. This is a reasonable return given that cash has essentially a zero return in an era of low interest rates. We sold 4 stocks in 2014 and 2 fell much further (Cliffs and CNOOC) while Splunk is mostly the same and Urban Outfitters gained about 20%.

We also sold 2 stocks in early 2015 (Weibo and Anadarko) so we have about $2200 to re-invest and will buy a couple of stocks in the spring.