Portfolio Eight Updated December 2018

Portfolio Eight is three years old.  The beneficiary contributed $2000 and the trustee $4000 for a total of $6000.  Current value is $6359 for a gain of $359 or 6%, which is about 2.3% / year across the life of the fund.  See here for details or go to the link on the right.

Some stocks are on watch:

  • Baozun (BZUN) – a Chinese e-commerce enablement fun has gone down recently tied to a slow down in growth for China overall.   On watch
  • General Motors (GM) – has fallen about 20% recently and taken hard steps including layoffs to get ahead of slowing car demand
  • Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell

Portfolio Six Updated December, 2018

Portfolio Six is six years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3500 and the trustee $7000 for a total of $10,500.  The current value is $10,860 for a gain of $360 or 3%, which is about 1% / year over the life of the fund.  For more details go here or to the link on the right.

We have several stocks on watch:

  • Electronic Arts (EA) – this stock is at about 53% of its 52 week high, as the whole games market has been hit hard lately even though the fundamentals (revenue) aren’t that much different, possibly due to Fortnight and the potential impact of streaming.  Will watch, may sell
  • Baozun (BZUN) – a Chinese e-commerce enablement fun has gone down recently tied to a slow down in growth for China overall.   On watch
  • Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell

Portfolio Four Updated December 2018

Portfolio Four is 9 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $16,984 for a gain of $1,984 or 13%, which is about 2.3% / year over the life of the account.  Go here or to the link on the right for details.

Given the current market, we have some stocks that we are monitoring:

  • Electronic Arts (EA) – this stock is at about 53% of its 52 week high, as the whole games market has been hit hard lately even though the fundamentals (revenue) aren’t that much different, possibly due to Fortnight and the potential impact of streaming.  Will watch, may sell
  • ABB (ABB) – European industrial conglomerate which has fallen about 20% since we’ve bought it
  • Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell
  • Box (BOX) – this is a well-run tech company that is a possible take over target.  They have gone down 25%+ with the overall tech market.  Will watch

Portfolio Three Updated December 2018

Portfolio Three is 11 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trusted $12,000 for a total of $18,000.  The current value is $21,710 for a gain of $3,710 or 21%, which is 2.9% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See the details here or go to the links on the left.

There are a few stocks we are looking at in the current market environment:

  • Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell
  • Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks
  • Facebook (FB) – it has been a bad year for Facebook and the stock is down about 30% off its highs.  Still strong financial performance, will watch
  • Baidu (BIDU) – another Chinese internet company down about 30% off its peak.  Will watch like Alibaba, above
  • ABB (ABB) – European industrial conglomerate which has fallen about 20% since we’ve bought it

Portfolio One Updated December, 2018

Portfolio One is a little more than 17 years old.  The current balance is $42,691 (of which $10,775 is cash).  The beneficiary contributed $2500 (net of withdrawals) and the trustee $17,000 for a total of $19,500.  Thus gains are $23,191 or 118% on original investment, which is about 6.2% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for details or at the link.

Although the market has not performed well lately, most of the stocks are in decent shape and the cash holdings (over 20% of portfolio, now yielding over 2%) limit downside risk (and upside opportunities later, assuming that the market goes back up at some point).

Some stocks on watch:

  • Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks
  • Electronic Arts (EA) – this stock is at about 53% of its 52 week high, as the whole games market has been hit hard lately even though the fundamentals (revenue) aren’t that much different, possibly due to Fortnight and the potential impact of streaming.  Will watch, may sell
  • Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell

Stock Selections for 2017

Below are our stock selections for 2017:

US Stocks

  1. Appian (APPN) – $24, 52 week range $17-$27, $1B market cap, no dividend, almost no debt.  Appian is an internet software company that provides automation software for corporate customers.  Well run and growing fast, went public recently and has done well since the IPO

2. Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) – $179, 52 week range $63-$191, $107B market cap, almost no dividend, $4B debt.  Nvidia makes chips for games and graphics cards and these chips are also being used for AI and machine learning use cases.

3. General Motors (GM) – $42, 52 week range $30-$42, $61B market cap, 3.8% yield, $55B debt.  GM is an iconic, global auto manufacturer with strong worldwide presence including China and has invested heavily in electric car technology.  Non US sales total 58% of volume (but a smaller percentage of profits).

4. Snapchat (SNAP) – $15, 52 week range $11-$29, $18B market cap, no dividend, no debt.  Snapchat went public and recently has lost almost half its value.  The company has over $2B in cash but is running a large loss due to operational expenses and acquisitions.  However, it is still strong in market and mind share and could also be an acquisition candidate for the right price

International Stocks

5. Baozun (BZUN) – $36, 52 week range $11-$41, $2B market cap, no dividend, little debt.  Baozun is a Chinese e-commerce provider for many major companies.

6. ABB (ABB) – $25, 52 week range $20-$25, $54B market cap, 3% yield, $7B debt.  ABB is a Swiss company and European conglomerate with strong interests in power and electricity generation.

Other

7. Gold ETF (IAU) – $12, 52 week range $11-$13, no dividend.  This ETF tracks the price of gold.  In case of a market correction (prices go down), gold often holds its value on a comparative basis.  On the other hand, gold pays no dividends and does not generate profits

We looked at bitcoin but there currently isn’t a direct bitcoin ETF and if someone wanted to trade bitcoin or ether they would be better off trading it directly.  These sorts of crypto currencies can cause taxation and other related issues and are too complex for this portfolio at the current time.