Stocks on Watch, Summer 2019

As part of our investing round for the summer of 2019, we are looking at stocks to consider selling. The following stocks are on that list:

• Baidu (BIDU) – they recently had their first loss and are way down
• Baozun (BZUN) – stock performance far down, likely impacted by China / US trade disputes
• Electronic Arts (EA) – far down with recent low performing franchise entries and hit by rise of Fortnite and mobile gaming
• Gilead (GILD) – has not moved in years
• General Motors (GM) – at risk with China / US trade disputes, automotive is a cyclical industry
• Juniper (JNPR) – just kind of there, not growing, haven’t been taken over yet
• Nvidia (NVDA) – went from huge growth to little / no growth
• Smart Global Holdings (SGH) – missed earnings and hit hard
• Equinor (EQNR) – formerly Statoil. Not moving much in years

In general will look to consolidate down the total # of stocks in the portfolio and will want to re-buy from the 2019 purchase list (to come) which will also include some stocks already in the one of the 8 existing portfolios.

Recent Stock Activity – Updated as of the end of March

Earlier in the year we had a mini-correction of sorts. Since then, many of the stocks in the portfolio have recovered, but some haven’t. I went through the recent stock performance of all the stocks in the portfolio and here are a few that were highlighted.  Recently updated again…

• Appian (APPN) – Appian creates low-code software for corporations.  They went IPO in 2017 and had a big run up; since then their shares have been volatile.  Our portfolios bought in at about $23-24 / share and now it is at $25, although it briefly hit over $40 / share (which is why the current price is about 60% of its 52 week high).  Watching for now
• Comcast (CMCSA) – Comcast has been on a 5 year + run but recently hasn’t bounced back from the recent dip and is about 20% below its’ peak.  Comcast lives in a very complex regulatory and technological environment that is difficult to summarize without being an expert in that field (which I’m not).  Watching for now
• Dow Dupont (DWDP) – Complicated chemical company about to split into multiple units.  Had some senior resignations and is down about 20%.  Watching for now
• Elbit (ESLT) – Israeli defense contractor recently picked up Uzi machine gun maker from Israeli government.  Down about 20% recently.  Watching for now
• Facebook (FB) – a whole series of publicity gaffes and issues with privacy have damaged the stock recently
• General Motors (GM) – GM had been on a good run lately and has a 4% dividend which is also helpful.  They recently took a 20% hit and haven’t bounced back. On watch
• Juniper (JNPR) – Juniper is a networking company that was a potential takeover candidate (there was talk of this in the market and the stock went up).  In general I feel that this company will either be bought out or be damaged by the move to the cloud and the rise of players like AWS.  It is down about 15% from its peak and may be time to sell (although it could also shoot back up if it became a serious takeover candidate)
• Procter and Gamble (PG) – Procter and Gamble is a storied company with a reputation for being well run.  They are down almost 20% from their peak and haven’t come back.  Like GM they have a nice dividend of 3.5%.  The question is – is P&G going to be hurt badly by companies like AMZN or do they have enough brand firepower to thrive long term (they definitely will survive in some form).  Will watch this but hate to give up on what seems to be a well run company
• Tesla (TSLA) – Tesla is a wild-card company whose valuation is dependent on Elon Musk’s awesome salesmanship.  Recently it has taken a 30%+ hit for a number of reasons including delays in their newest car lines.  May want to sell
• Wal-Mart (WMT) – Wal-Mart is also down about 20% from its peak, for various reasons, including never-ending competition from Amazon.  They also are now looking to buy Humana which is interesting

Portfolio Five Updated Feb 2018, And It’s Tax Time

Portfolio Five is 8 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000, for a total of $13,500.  The current value is $16,640 for a gain of 23%, which is 4.1% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see portfolio five details here or go to the link on the right.

This year we sold 2 stocks, TTM and SAVE, for a short term tax loss of ($78) and a long term gain of $24.  We also had $291 in dividends.

The portfolio is generally doing pretty well and came back a bit from the early February market activity.  We are watching JNPR because it may be in play as a takeover candidate.

Portfolio Review December 2017

For our portfolios I created a summary view in Google Sheets that updates automatically.  I also “save” performance every month or so (per above) so that you can see performance across time.  Note that this performance also includes additional investments and withdrawals so it isn’t “apples to  apples” but is still useful.  Generally we’ve gone up a lot in total since May along with the total market, and been pretty steady for the last couple of months.

Since moving portfolios to Google Sheets, I also centrally review “all stocks” and update yield (which cannot be determined via a Google Finance formula) manually.  At this time I also go through the stock news and review some of the stocks that may be performance outliers, as well as remove information on stocks that we no longer track (like TTM and SAVE).

Some of the stocks noted:

• Dow Dupont (DWDP) – the merger has been completed.  The stock is likely to split into three separate companies.  I think we will sell now and take our gains and review the companies later that spin out.  This also saves us from having just a few fractional shares (Portfolio 3)
• Juniper (JNPR) – there were rumors of a buyout for this network equipment maker.  This company is at risk of remaining independent due to the migration to the cloud.  It went up with the speculation (and back down when it didn’t occur).  Would like to get the sale premium or see it embedded in the stock price.  The problem is that if the sale doesn’t happen, the price usually goes back down (Portfolio 5D)
• Siemens (SIEGY) – the European conglomerate has held up better than GE in the face of the power meltdown (companies are not buying turbines as often anymore they are moving to solar and wind).  They are likely to spin off their health care business in Europe.  May be a time to sell (Portfolios 3, 5D)

Portfolio Five Updated July, 2017

Portfolio Five is almost 5 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4000 and the trustee $8000, for a total of $12,000.  The current value is $14,522, for a gain of $2522 or 21%, which is about 4.3% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for details or see the link on the right of the page.

We are looking at several stocks.  ConocoPhillips (COP) has been hit hard by the decline in oil prices, but has kept a modest dividend.  Spirit Airlines (SAVE) has been a great stock but has come down recently.  Tata Motors (TTM) provides some diversity in terms of currency and emerging markets but is down about 20% from highs.  Juniper Networks (JNPR) has been doing well but long term they face risks from Amazon (AMZN) and the cloud.

 

Portfolio Post Election

After the elections, stocks have generally gone up. Some sectors have done well, and others have fallen. The US dollar is stronger, which means that our overseas stocks have gone down on a relative basis.

We are judicious on selling off stocks here. However, since the election is past it is likely time to make a few moves in some areas.

Portfolio One:

• Novartis (NVS)– the Swiss drug maker is down about 20% from where we bought it (but has almost a 4% dividend), and drug makers seem to be under pressure with the new administration calling for price reductions. On watch will look at the next earnings release at the end of January
• Statoil (STO) – the Norwegian oil company is down 20% off our purchase price but has come back significantly with possible increases in oil prices.  They also didn’t cut their dividend which remains a high 6% yield which also is positive for investors.  Will watch and see if it rises further
• Infosys (INFY) – Infosys has fallen about 25% off its peak.  The company benefits from the declining Indian currency since most of its revenues are earned overseas.  However, the offshore firms have also been hit by the new administration and potential curbs on outsourcing, which they are trying to limit by having more US based staff and less overseas contractors.  The company is on watch
• Tesla Motors (TSLA) – this is a very speculative stock (little earnings, high valuation) and has high volatility.  We will keep it on watch
• Anheuser Busch Inbev – the stock has dropped by over 30% recently as they attempt to purchase Miller Coors.  They also have been hit with economic volatility in Brazil.   They are a well run group but these are strong headwinds.  We will put the stock on watch

Portfolio Two:

Portfolio Two moved over to ETF’s and CD’s.  Their ETF’s have been doing well with the exception of the NASDAQ Biotech ETF (IBB) in which we have a relatively small position that is new.  We will continue to watch this sector ETF.

Portfolio Three:

• Wynn (WYNN) – the casino stock is a major operator in China.  The stock is down over 30% and no longer delivering “special” dividends beyond the regular quarterly dividend.  We will sell the stock now
• Infosys (INFY) – Infosys has fallen about 25% off its peak.  The company benefits from the declining Indian currency since most of its revenues are earned overseas.  However, the offshore firms have also been hit by the new administration and potential curbs on outsourcing, which they are trying to limit by having more US based staff and less overseas contractors.  The company is on watch

Portfolio Four:

• Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF) – the Central American distributor of Coke is 40% off from our purchase price,  been hit by various issues and negative currency fluctuations and now finally the current administration.  We will sell the stock now
• Tesla Motors (TSLA) – this is a very speculative stock (little earnings, high valuation) and has high volatility.  We will keep it on watch
• Novartis (NVS)– the Swiss drug maker is down about 20% from where we bought it (but has almost a 4% dividend), and drug makers seem to be under pressure with the new administration calling for price reductions. On watch will look at the next earnings release at the end of January
• Statoil (STO) – the Norwegian oil company is down 20% off our purchase price but has come back significantly with possible increases in oil prices.  They also didn’t cut their dividend which remains a high 6% yield which also is positive for investors.  Will watch and see if it rises further
• Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) – the European oil company is down almost 20% on price but has been rising and hasn’t cut the over 6% dividend.  Will watch and see if it rises further
• Devon (DVN) – unlike Statoil and Shell, Devon did cut their dividend and is down about 20% on price.   However, the stock is up almost 2 1/2 times off its low so we will hold it as it keeps recovering.  Will watch and see if it rises further

Portfolio Five:

• Anheuser Busch Inbev – the stock has dropped by over 30% recently as they attempt to purchase Miller Coors.  They also have been hit with economic volatility in Brazil.   They are a well run group but these are strong headwinds.  We will put the stock on watch
• Juniper (JNPR) – Juniper had been down significantly but now is above our purchase price.  We will watch this stock as an acquisition candidate and may sell if it stops rising.  This stock is on watch

Portfolio Six:

• Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF) – the Central American distributor of Coke is 40% off from our purchase price,  been hit by various issues and negative currency fluctuations and now finally the current administration.  We will sell the stock now

Portfolio Seven:

• Unilever (UNLV) – Unilever is down about 14% off peak due to the reduction in the value of the British pound and other factors.  This is a recent purchase and a well run company we will put the stock on watch

Portfolio Eight:

• Unilever (UNLV) – Unilever is down about 14% off peak due to the reduction in the value of the British pound and other factors.  This is a recent purchase and a well run company we will put the stock on watch

 

Stocks on watch update

Generally waiting and putting these stocks on watch have gone well.  They have mostly increased in price recently.

Novartis (NVS) – did not have a good quarterly earnings release.  Still on watch may sell.

Statoil (STO) – still generally on the rise with the recent increase in oil prices

Linked In (LNKD) – up since lows.  Will see if it stalls

Wynn (WYNN) – up almost 50% off its lows.  Beat q1 earnings.

ConocoPhillips (COP) – up off lows but hurt recently by Canadian shutdown due to wildfires

Coca Cola Femsa (KOF) – generally still on the rise off lows.  OK dividend

Devon (DVN) – up significantly off lows.  Benefiting from recent rise in oil prices

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) – also up on recent oil price rises.  Hit some by closing of Canadian oil sands due to wildfires

Oracle (ORCL) – still doing OK.  Will keep on long term watch due to cloud threat

Juniper (JNPR) – missed their 3/31/16 earnings.  Will watch on 6/30/16.  May be passed up by the cloud environment.  Could be an acquisition target

Current inclination… is to sell Juniper and Novartis.  Will watch.

Stock Selections for Summer 2015

There have been stock sales in some of the portfolios so we will have another round of stock selections.  Here are the choices.

INTERNATIONAL

1. Vale ADR (VALE) – $7, ($5 – $14 over 52 weeks), $35B market capitalization, 5.5% yield, $35B in debt.  The Brazilian mining giant has been hit hard by the reduction in demand for the commodities that it produces as well as difficulties in Brazil as the economy is stagnant and the currency is falling.  With these factors it is a solid candidate for a rebound in future years if they can continue to focus on efficiency and cost reductions
2. Alibaba (BABA) – $88, ($77 – $120 over 52 weeks), $220B market capitalization, no dividend, $8B in debt.  Alibaba is a Chinese e-commerce giant.  They are listed directly on the NYSE and not an ADR.  While the Chinese stock market has made a huge advance recently, Alibaba has slowed as the company re-groups and reduces hiring and focuses on execution.  If you already own Yahoo don’t buy Alibaba because Yahoo has ownership of a portion of their stock which is already reflected in Yahoo’s value
3. Infosys ADR (INFY) – $31, ($25 – $37 over 52 weeks), $35B market capitalization, 1.6% yield, no debt.  The Indian outsourcing and consulting company is poised to grow with India and benefits from the strong dollar since much of its costs are in Indian currency but much of its revenues are received in dollars

US Market

1. Celgene (CELG) – $115, ($72 – $129 over 52 weeks), $91B market capitalization, no dividend, $7B in debt.     Celgene is a US biotech / drug company with a variety of drugs under patent and a pipeline of many other potential future products
2. Juniper Networks (JNPR) – $27, ($18 – $27 over 52 weeks), $11B market capitalization, 1.5% yield, $2B in debt. Juniper Networking is a high technology company specializing in fast networking gear.  The company is well run and has beaten analyst profit estimates recently
3. Dow Chemical (DOW) – $51, ($41 – $54 over 52 weeks), $59B market capitalization, 3.3% yield, $20B in debt.  Dow Chemical provides processed material for manufacturing and agriculture.  The company benefits from lower US natural gas costs which provide advantages since it is a major component of their products.  The company recently fended off an activist investor which reduced their stock price.