Potential Stock Sales for August 2018

Here are the potential stock sales by portfolio:

Portfolio 8K

  • GM – consider selling
  • BZUN

Portfolio 7G

  • GM – consider selling
  • BZUN

Portfolio 6

  • ESLT
  • BZUN
  • BIDU

Portfolio 5D

  • BZUN
  • GM – consider selling 
  • BUD – recommend selling (not growing) (SOLD)
  • BIDU

Portfolio 4M

  • TSLA – recommend selling (a media circus) (SOLD)
  • ABB
  • ESLT

Portfolio 3

  • ABB
  • DWDP – recommend selling (will split into multiple companies) (SOLD)
  • BIDU
  • ESLT
  • WMT (SOLD)

Portfolio 1 and 2 – None


Portfolio Three Updated August 2018

Portfolio three is 11 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500.  The current value is $23,170 for a gain of 40% or 5.6% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the data here or at the link on the right.

We have a few stocks that we are considering selling now.

  1. ABB (ABB) – ABB is a European conglomerate with a new CEO that is well run.  Down about 20% from 52 week high but too early to sell (just bought it last year)
  2. DowDuPont (DWDP) – this chemical company is performing well.  We will likely sell it before it splits into 3 stocks in 2019
  3. Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu is a large internet company in China.  It is down about 20% from 52 week high.  Will probably keep
  4. Elbit Systems (ESLT) – Elbit is an Israeli defense contractor.  They are doing well operationally but are down about 20% from a recent peak.  Probably will hold on to it
  5. Wal-Mart (WMT) – Wal-Mart is well run but in the fight for its’ life against Amazon.  May want to take our winnings and go. Stock recently rallied…

None of these are immediate sells but ones to consider.

Portfolio Review December 2017

For our portfolios I created a summary view in Google Sheets that updates automatically.  I also “save” performance every month or so (per above) so that you can see performance across time.  Note that this performance also includes additional investments and withdrawals so it isn’t “apples to  apples” but is still useful.  Generally we’ve gone up a lot in total since May along with the total market, and been pretty steady for the last couple of months.

Since moving portfolios to Google Sheets, I also centrally review “all stocks” and update yield (which cannot be determined via a Google Finance formula) manually.  At this time I also go through the stock news and review some of the stocks that may be performance outliers, as well as remove information on stocks that we no longer track (like TTM and SAVE).

Some of the stocks noted:

  • Dow Dupont (DWDP) – the merger has been completed.  The stock is likely to split into three separate companies.  I think we will sell now and take our gains and review the companies later that spin out.  This also saves us from having just a few fractional shares (Portfolio 3)
  • Juniper (JNPR) – there were rumors of a buyout for this network equipment maker.  This company is at risk of remaining independent due to the migration to the cloud.  It went up with the speculation (and back down when it didn’t occur).  Would like to get the sale premium or see it embedded in the stock price.  The problem is that if the sale doesn’t happen, the price usually goes back down (Portfolio 5D)
  • Siemens (SIEGY) – the European conglomerate has held up better than GE in the face of the power meltdown (companies are not buying turbines as often anymore they are moving to solar and wind).  They are likely to spin off their health care business in Europe.  May be a time to sell (Portfolios 3, 5D)

Stock Selections for Summer 2015

There have been stock sales in some of the portfolios so we will have another round of stock selections.  Here are the choices.


  1. Vale ADR (VALE) – $7, ($5 – $14 over 52 weeks), $35B market capitalization, 5.5% yield, $35B in debt.  The Brazilian mining giant has been hit hard by the reduction in demand for the commodities that it produces as well as difficulties in Brazil as the economy is stagnant and the currency is falling.  With these factors it is a solid candidate for a rebound in future years if they can continue to focus on efficiency and cost reductions
  2. Alibaba (BABA) – $88, ($77 – $120 over 52 weeks), $220B market capitalization, no dividend, $8B in debt.  Alibaba is a Chinese e-commerce giant.  They are listed directly on the NYSE and not an ADR.  While the Chinese stock market has made a huge advance recently, Alibaba has slowed as the company re-groups and reduces hiring and focuses on execution.  If you already own Yahoo don’t buy Alibaba because Yahoo has ownership of a portion of their stock which is already reflected in Yahoo’s value
  3. Infosys ADR (INFY) – $31, ($25 – $37 over 52 weeks), $35B market capitalization, 1.6% yield, no debt.  The Indian outsourcing and consulting company is poised to grow with India and benefits from the strong dollar since much of its costs are in Indian currency but much of its revenues are received in dollars

US Market

  1. Celgene (CELG) – $115, ($72 – $129 over 52 weeks), $91B market capitalization, no dividend, $7B in debt.     Celgene is a US biotech / drug company with a variety of drugs under patent and a pipeline of many other potential future products
  2. Juniper Networks (JNPR) – $27, ($18 – $27 over 52 weeks), $11B market capitalization, 1.5% yield, $2B in debt. Juniper Networking is a high technology company specializing in fast networking gear.  The company is well run and has beaten analyst profit estimates recently
  3. Dow Chemical (DOW) – $51, ($41 – $54 over 52 weeks), $59B market capitalization, 3.3% yield, $20B in debt.  Dow Chemical provides processed material for manufacturing and agriculture.  The company benefits from lower US natural gas costs which provide advantages since it is a major component of their products.  The company recently fended off an activist investor which reduced their stock price.