Portfolio Five Updated August 2017

Portfolio five is 8 years old.  The trustee contributed $8000 and the beneficiary $4000 for a total of $12,000.  The current value is $14,184 for a gain of $2,184 or 18%, which works out to 4% / year.  See detail here or go to a link on the right.

We are evaluating stocks to sell prior to our summer purchases.

  • Tata (TTM) – Indian automaker who is down significantly.  Likely sell
  • Spirit Airlines (SAVE) – US discount airlines that is facing more competition and headwinds.  Possible sell
  • ConocoPhillips (COP) – integrated oil and gas company hit by falling commodity prices.  Possible sell
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Portfolio Six Updated August 2017

Portfolio six is 5 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $2500 and the trustee $5000 for a total of $7500.  Current value is $8023 for a gain of $523 or 7%, which is 2% / year.  You can see the details at the link on the right or go here.

We have new analytics on these spreadsheets.  We also centrally track items like “yield” and the current description / status so we only need to updated it one time.

  1. Tata Motors (TTM) – Indian auto company which owns Range Rover.  Sell
  2. ConocoPhillips (COP) – US oil and gas producer hit hard by oil crisis, but up from lows with decent dividend.  Likely sell
  3. Exxon Mobil (XOM)  – large, well run integrated oil and gas company.  A political football.  May want to sell
  4. Gilead (GILD) – Drugmaker.  Keep for now, up from lows

Portfolio Three Updated August 2017

Portfolio Three is 10 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  Current value is $19,143 for a gain of $4143 or 27%, which is 4% / year across the life of the fund.  See the details here or in the links on the right.

We have added some new, central analytics to this portfolio.  There are 3 stocks that we are looking at right now for being 80% – 89% of their 52 week high…

  1. ConocoPhilips (COP) – COP is an oil and gas company with a strong dividend.  It is at risk due to continuing low oil and gas prices.  We will consider selling it now
  2. Siemens (SIEGY) – Siemens is a successful European conglomerate with a strong dividend.  The stock is not far off 5 year highs, but down about 10-15% off recent peaks.  We will likely hold onto this stock
  3. Exxon (XOM) – Exxon is a lightning-rod political stock.  They are a well run company near their 5 year lows, hit by low prices for oil and gas.  We will consider selling it, but less likely than COP (above)

Portfolio Five Updated July, 2017

Portfolio Five is almost 5 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4000 and the trustee $8000, for a total of $12,000.  The current value is $14,522, for a gain of $2522 or 21%, which is about 4.3% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for details or see the link on the right of the page.

We are looking at several stocks.  ConocoPhillips (COP) has been hit hard by the decline in oil prices, but has kept a modest dividend.  Spirit Airlines (SAVE) has been a great stock but has come down recently.  Tata Motors (TTM) provides some diversity in terms of currency and emerging markets but is down about 20% from highs.  Juniper Networks (JNPR) has been doing well but long term they face risks from Amazon (AMZN) and the cloud.

 

Portfolio 3 Updated April 2017

Portfolio 3 is 9 1/2 years old.  The trustee contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $17,483 for a gain of $2,483 or 16%, which is about 2.7% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the detail at the links on the right or go here.

The portfolio is generally doing well.  We will consider selling ConocoPhillips (COP) which has been selling off assets to pare down debt and reduced their dividend.  Their stock has stabilized but this may not be the best oil play.  We are also sticking with ExxonMobil (XOM) which we bought near a high because that company has proven to be well run over the last few decades.

In the new “analytics” tab you can see that this portfolio has a heavy non-US component, with 62% of stocks from non-US countries.  We have 2 of the 3 major Chinese internet companies and also 2 large Canadian banks, among others.

Stocks on watch update

Generally waiting and putting these stocks on watch have gone well.  They have mostly increased in price recently.

Novartis (NVS) – did not have a good quarterly earnings release.  Still on watch may sell.

Statoil (STO) – still generally on the rise with the recent increase in oil prices

Linked In (LNKD) – up since lows.  Will see if it stalls

Wynn (WYNN) – up almost 50% off its lows.  Beat q1 earnings.

ConocoPhillips (COP) – up off lows but hurt recently by Canadian shutdown due to wildfires

Coca Cola Femsa (KOF) – generally still on the rise off lows.  OK dividend

Devon (DVN) – up significantly off lows.  Benefiting from recent rise in oil prices

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) – also up on recent oil price rises.  Hit some by closing of Canadian oil sands due to wildfires

Oracle (ORCL) – still doing OK.  Will keep on long term watch due to cloud threat

Juniper (JNPR) – missed their 3/31/16 earnings.  Will watch on 6/30/16.  May be passed up by the cloud environment.  Could be an acquisition target

Current inclination… is to sell Juniper and Novartis.  Will watch.

Comments for Stocks on Watch

In general, earnings season is coming up now (mid to late April) for many of these stocks and we can hear about forward revenue projections and their views on oil prices as well as dividend policy.

Comments for Stocks on watch:

Novartis (NVS) – April 21 we will hear Q1 results and updates on strategy and EPS.

Statoil (STO) – April 27 we will hear Q1 results.  Stock price linked to dividend policy.  Their current dividend is over 7% and sustaining the stocks’ value

Linked In (LNKD) – April 28 Q1 earnings call.  Stock hit hard after forward guidance but still has significant and growing revenues (not a unicorn).

Wynn (WYNN) – Stock still in 90’s… will continue to watch (up from far lows).

ConocoPhillips (COP) – Stock already took hit from 75% dividend cut.  Now they believe they can break even on cash flow perspective at $45 oil which is attainable.  Remains on watch

Coca Cola Femsa (KOF) – Stock in 80’s… will continue to watch.

Devon (DVN) – still watching with oil prices.  Devon has a low dividend so little downside risk now of dividend cuts.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) – will watch with oil prices and their restructuring.  Still holding on to high dividend for now (almost 8%)

Oracle (ORCL) – still rising with cloud numbers.