Portfolio Two Updated April 2022

Portfolio Two is 17 1/2 years old.  The trustee contributed $18,200 and the beneficiary $27,000 for a total of $45,200.  The current value is $72,659 for a gain of $27,460 or 60.8%, which is 6.7% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here or to the link for more details.

This portfolio contains a mix of ETF’s, cash and individual stocks.  The ETF’s mainly track the market and cash is even so let’s talk about some of the stocks, as follows:

  • Meta (FB) and Alibaba (BABA) are down significantly.  Meta has been hit with the tech downturn and Apple privacy changes and Alibaba has been hit by regulatory and tech crackdowns in China
  • Cloudflare (NET) is an innovative tech company with a high valuation (in terms of price to sales, one of the highest for tech companies) and it has been variable recently, although it has bounced back from recent lows
  • Nike (NKE) and L’Oreal (LRLCY) are relatively recent purchases that are in the consumer product space and they are down since we bought them (although not as big as the tech drops)

Portfolio Five Updated April 2022

Portfolio five is 12 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6500 and the trustee $13,000 for a total of $19,500.  The current value is $35,277 for a gain of $15,766 or 80%, which is 8.2% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here or to the link on the right for more details.

Portfolio five has been impacted by the market decline, as follows:

  • We made some purchases earlier in the year of Appian (APPN), Intel (INTC), Block (SQ) and SNAP (SNAP) that fell 30% – 50% after the purchase.  We will look again these stocks
  • We bought Activision (ATVI) which did well (up 20%) with an acquisition offer from Microsoft; we should sell at this point
  • Cloudflare (NET), OKTA (OKTA) and PayPal (PYPL) have all been impacted recently.  Cloudflare fell far but came back.  OKTA made an acquisition that the market did not like and was hit by a hack and the general decline in software valuations.  PayPal stopped giving forward guidance and was hit hard by the market.  We will re-look at these stocks

Portfolio Four Updated April 2022

Portfolio four is 12 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6500 and the trustee $13,000 for a total of $19,500.  The current value is $45,993 for a gain of $26,494 or 136%, which is 11.7% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See the details here or at the link on the right.

Some of the stocks have declined based on recent market events and are being reviewed including:

  • Block (SQ) is a new holding that declined since we bought it
  • Cloudflare (NET) is an innovative software company that went up a lot and then lost significant value
  • OKTA (OKTA) is a software company that had been a great performer for a long time but recently was hit by the re-valuation of software growth companies, an acquisition the market didn’t like, and a hack

Portfolio Four Updated November 2021

Portfolio four is 12 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6500 and the trustee $13,000 for a total of $19,500.  The current value is $51,656 for a gain of $32,156 or 165%, which is 13.2% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Check the values here or at the link on the right.

The portfolio is doing well overall in this bull market.  The biggest winners are Tesla, NVIDIA and recently purchased Cloudflare (NET).  The other stocks are doing well.

Portfolio Two Updated October 2021

Portfolio Two is seventeen years old.  The beneficiary contributed $27,000 and the trustee $18,200 for a total of $45,200.  The current value is $79,546 for a gain of $34,346 or 76%, which is 7.6% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  For details go here or to the link on the right.

The portfolio is generally doing well.  There is a core of ETF’s and some individual stocks.  Cloudflare (NET) has been doing well and the others mostly purchased recently.  Alibaba (BABA) is up from recent very low prices caused by Chinese politics and a deferral of the Ant IPO, but we are holding on for now.

This portfolio has over $20,000 in cash and the total bond fund (BND) ETF which reduces risk but also reduces total return opportunities.  1/4 of the fund is invested in cash or low risk equivalents rather than equities. 

April Performance Review

Performance_April_2021

Since our last updated in mid-February (approximately the market “top”), the value of our positions has declined by about 5% overall, with some portfolios hardly moving and others declining over 10%. The differences were driven by:

  • What percent of the portfolio is in cash or bonds – 25+% portfolio two, 30+% portfolio three, 20%+ portfolio four, with the heavier the cash and bond weighting the lower the decline
  • Amount of high growth stocks in portfolio – certain stocks that have been great performers that are considered “growth” and generally trade as a multiple of sales (say 20-30x sales) such as Tesla (TSLA) and Cloudflare (NET) and Sumo (SUMO) fell as the market moved from growth to value in the first quarter

Given that these portfolios represent a log-term investment for each of the participants and would be a portion of their total net worth (i.e. they often hold other cash in savings or other accounts), we try to be reasonably heavily invested in the market, but each participant has their own risk tolerance.

During this rotation into value stocks, some sectors which had been battered such as energy (Exxon-Mobil and Chevron) and Financials and some general retail have come back strong. There are many of these stocks in the portfolios (such as Coca-Cola, Procter and Gamble, and many others) but they generally represent a lower portion of the total “value” because the tech stocks have risen so much that their position size is much bigger.

We also see variances by region, with Chinese stocks rising and US stocks generally rising (at least in some sectors) but European stocks stagnant. Since these portfolios seek to choose both US and overseas stocks, we also will see changes in value based on changes in currencies and country-specific dynamics. We do not intend to “predict” which ones will rise and fall, but we encourage a balanced mix of stocks by sector and region / currency where possible.

Some specific stocks have fallen and are “on watch”, including:

  • Alibaba (BABA) – a well run Chinese company with huge cloud presence (like AWS) and a giant financial arm (called ANT), this group has run afoul of regulators and Chinese politics.  It is down about 25% from its high
  • Cloudflare (NET) – Cloudflare runs an advanced online system and trades for more than 30x revenues… making it susceptible to falling when it doesn’t perform exceedingly well in revenue growth or when interest rates increase.  It is down about 20% off its high
  • Tesla (TSLA) – the grand-daddy of all stock high flyers is down about 20% from recent peaks
  • Sumo Logic (SUMO) – SUMO has lost about half its value from peak recently.  While SUMO is still growing quickly, it recently acquired a company and is not exceeding expectations
  • Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun, the Chinese e-commerce support company, is down about 30% off recent highs.  The company was part of a short squeeze and impacted by US / China relations overall, but core operations are solid
  • Gilead (GILD) – this large pharma stock has lost about 20% of its value, despite having high earnings and dividends.  It does not play significantly in the covid space and is a bet for focus on other drugs and treatments in the post-covid era.

By portfolio:

  • Portfolio one -BABA, NET
  • Portfolio two – BABA, NET
  • Portfolio four – TSLA, NET
  • Portfolio five – SUMO, NET, BABA, BZUN
  • Portfolio six – BZUN, GILD, SUMO
  • Portfolio seven – BABA, BZUN, SUMO
  • Portfolio eight – BZUN, SUMO

Portfolio Five Updated November 2020

Portfolio Five is 11 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trustee $12,000 for a total of $18,000.  The current value is $31,765 for a gain of $13,865 or 77% which is 8.5% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here or to the link on the right for more detail.

Gains in the portfolio have been driven by Appian (APPN) which has had a huge run up lately, Cloudflare (NET), Nvidia (NVDA), OKTA (OKTA), Paypal (PYPL), Alibaba (BABA), Union Pacific (UNP) and Procter and Gamble (PG). There are 17 stocks in total in the portfolio, the others are doing OK or are too new to rate. SAP (SAP) was hit recently with their earnings report but is still up overall, and Alibaba (BABA) is still up significantly but fell with the deferral of the ANT IPO.

Portfolio Performance As of May 2020 and Replacement Stock Selections

The stock market has recovered almost all of the losses incurred with the pandemic.  From peak to trough (Feb 2020 to March 2020) we lost about 23% of our value.  Today, we are down about 7% from peak.  Our percentages do not completely align with the market because some portfolios hold up to 20% cash and some bond investments (BND ETF from Vanguard) and Gold (IAU ETF ticker).  This performance generally aligns with riding the market down and then back up again.Portfolio Performance May 10 2020

Whether by luck or design, our portfolios did not hold most of the industries that bore the brunt of the Covid impact, like airlines, hotels, and commodities. We did have some stocks that we recently sold in some of these hard hit areas.

I reviewed the rest of the portfolio and we are continually “pruning down” the list of stocks that we hold. There are about 30 stocks held across the portfolio right now, down from about 40 or so in the relatively recent past. This does not include ETF’s.

The stocks that have driven the most value in the portfolio that are not bought across all the portfolio (because every beneficiary selects individually) are:

  • Electronic Arts (EA) – videogames
  • Mastercard (MA) – electronic payments & credit cards
  • CME Group (CME) – financial services
  • Alibaba (BABA) – Chinese e-commerce giant
  • Nvida (NVDA) – semiconductors
  • OKTA (OKTA) – SAAS provider of security services
  • Paypal (PYPL) – electronic payments
  • Procter & Gamble (PG) – iconic brand company
  • Taiwan Semi-conductor (TSM) – semiconductors
  • Union Pacific (UNP) – Railways
  • Gold ETF (IAU) – tracks price of gold

If the portfolios that are selecting new stocks don’t currently own one of the stocks listed above, they may want to consider buying them.

New stocks for May 2020:

  • Carrier (CARR) – manufacture and sale of Heating and cooling systems (HVAC).  Recently spun out from a conglomerate
  • Facebook (FB) – owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp seems to have recovered from past controversies
  • Cloudflare (NET) – security and edge networking has been growing with the crisis

Stocks To Pick:

Portfolio Four – select three stocks

Portfolio Five – select two stocks

Portfolio Six – select one stock