Portfolio Update August, 2019

As of August 2019, our combined portfolios are back to where they were in August of last year. This is mostly in line with VTI (Vanguard US market ETF) which was up about 3% and VEU (non US market ETF which was up about 1%).

Below are stocks to consider selling prior to the new purchases:

Portfolio One:

• Nnvidia (NVDA) – the once high flying chipmaker stock is hit with slowing growth
• Equinor (EQNR) – former Statoil is a Norwegian oil company hit by falling price of their currency and anti-oil sentiment in their own country

Portfolio Three:

• Baidu (BIDU) – Chinese search engine less relevant in mobile era and new investments not yet paying off
• Nnvidia (NVDA) – the once high flying chipmaker stock is hit with slowing growth
• ConocoPhillips (COP) – US oil company hit by lower energy prices and relatively smaller footprint

Portfolio Four:

• Equinor (EQNR) – former Statoil is a Norwegian oil company hit by falling price of their currency and anti-oil sentiment in their own country
• Nnvidia (NVDA) – the once high flying chipmaker stock is hit with slowing growth
• Box (BOX) – US SAAS provider not yet acquired by larger company and hit by recent earnings miss
• Oracle (ORCL) – very well run and doing huge stock by back but trends running against this on premise software stock
• Westpac (WBK) – Australian bank hit with tough regulatory, business, and real estate impacts

Portfolio Five:

• Baidu (BIDU) – Chinese search engine less relevant in mobile era and new investments not yet paying off
• Juniper (JNPR) – US networking company not yet taken over.  Reasonably well run with dividend but in a difficult space
• ConocoPhillips (COP) – US oil company hit by lower energy prices and relatively smaller footprint
• Westpac (WBK) – Australian bank hit with tough regulatory, business, and real estate impacts

Portfolio Six:

• Baidu (BIDU) – Chinese search engine less relevant in mobile era and new investments not yet paying off
• Nnvidia (NVDA) – the once high flying chipmaker stock is hit with slowing growth
• ConocoPhillips (COP) – US oil company hit by lower energy prices and relatively smaller footprint

Portfolio Eight:

• Nnvidia (NVDA) – the once high flying chipmaker stock is hit with slowing growth

Portfolio Five Updated May 2019

Portfolio Five is almost 10 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $18,510 for a gain of $3,510 or 23% which is 23.8% adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see details here or on the link on the right.

Prior to making purchases in the summer of 2019 we will look at selling Baozun (BZUN), General Motors (GM), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Juniper Networks (JNPR), and Baidu (BIDU).

Portfolio Three Updated May 2019

Portfolio Three is almost 12 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trusted $12,000 for a total of $18,000.  The current value is $22,338 for a gain of $4,338 or 24%, which is 3.3% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See the details here or go to the links on the left.

We will look at selling Smart Global Holdings (SGH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Baidu (BIDU) prior to making our summer 2019 purchases.

Stocks on Watch, Summer 2019

As part of our investing round for the summer of 2019, we are looking at stocks to consider selling. The following stocks are on that list:

• Baidu (BIDU) – they recently had their first loss and are way down
• Baozun (BZUN) – stock performance far down, likely impacted by China / US trade disputes
• Electronic Arts (EA) – far down with recent low performing franchise entries and hit by rise of Fortnite and mobile gaming
• Gilead (GILD) – has not moved in years
• General Motors (GM) – at risk with China / US trade disputes, automotive is a cyclical industry
• Juniper (JNPR) – just kind of there, not growing, haven’t been taken over yet
• Nvidia (NVDA) – went from huge growth to little / no growth
• Smart Global Holdings (SGH) – missed earnings and hit hard
• Equinor (EQNR) – formerly Statoil. Not moving much in years

In general will look to consolidate down the total # of stocks in the portfolio and will want to re-buy from the 2019 purchase list (to come) which will also include some stocks already in the one of the 8 existing portfolios.

Portfolio Five Updated December 2018

Portfolio Five is 9 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $17,439 for a gain of $2,439 or 16% which is 2.7% adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see details here or on the link on the right.

With the recent market performance we have several stocks on watch:

• Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks
• Baozun (BZUN) – a Chinese e-commerce enablement fun has gone down recently tied to a slow down in growth for China overall.   On watch
• Baidu (BIDU) – another Chinese internet company down about 30% off its peak.  Will watch like Alibaba, above
• General Motors (GM) – has fallen about 20% recently and taken hard steps including layoffs to get ahead of slowing car demand

Portfolio Three Updated December 2018

Portfolio Three is 11 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trusted $12,000 for a total of $18,000.  The current value is $21,710 for a gain of $3,710 or 21%, which is 2.9% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See the details here or go to the links on the left.

There are a few stocks we are looking at in the current market environment:

• Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell
• Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks
• Facebook (FB) – it has been a bad year for Facebook and the stock is down about 30% off its highs.  Still strong financial performance, will watch
• Baidu (BIDU) – another Chinese internet company down about 30% off its peak.  Will watch like Alibaba, above
• ABB (ABB) – European industrial conglomerate which has fallen about 20% since we’ve bought it

Portfolio Six Updated August 2018

Portfolio 6 is six years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3000 and the trustee $6000 for a total of $9000.  The current value is $11,172 for a gain of $2,172 or a gain of 24%, which is 6.2% / year over the life of the account.  To see details go here or to the link on the right.

There are a few stocks on watch right now:

• Baozun (BZUN)- the Chinese ecommerce company is down with the overall Chinese market, about 20% off its high.  Has still done well this year overall
• Elbit Systems (ESLT) – the Israeli defense contractor that recently bought the maker of Uzi is down about 20% recently as well.
• Baidu (BIDU) – the Chinese internet company is also down about 20% with the Chinese market recently

 

Portfolio Five as of August 2018

Portfolio five is nine years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000 for a total of $13,500.  The current value is $17,823 for a gain of $4,323 or 32% which is 5.5% / year after adjusting for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the detail here or on the link to the right.

There are a few stocks on watch:

• Baozun (BZUN) – the Chinese e-commerce enablement firm is still up a lot for the year but down about 20% from a recent peak.  Likely to keep holding
• General Motors (GM) – recently all the automakers took a hit in price.  Decent dividend and fundamentals haven’t changed much recently.  Will watch
• Anheuser Busch Inbev (BUD) – the giant world wide beer company is well run but hasn’t had much growth in its stock price.  Will watch
• Baidu (BIDU) – the Chinese internet stock lost about 20% of its value in the recent drop in the overall Chinese market.  Will watch

Portfolio Three Updated August 2018

Portfolio three is 11 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500.  The current value is $23,170 for a gain of 40% or 5.6% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the data here or at the link on the right.

We have a few stocks that we are considering selling now.

1. ABB (ABB) – ABB is a European conglomerate with a new CEO that is well run.  Down about 20% from 52 week high but too early to sell (just bought it last year)
2. DowDuPont (DWDP) – this chemical company is performing well.  We will likely sell it before it splits into 3 stocks in 2019
3. Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu is a large internet company in China.  It is down about 20% from 52 week high.  Will probably keep
4. Elbit Systems (ESLT) – Elbit is an Israeli defense contractor.  They are doing well operationally but are down about 20% from a recent peak.  Probably will hold on to it
5. Wal-Mart (WMT) – Wal-Mart is well run but in the fight for its’ life against Amazon.  May want to take our winnings and go. Stock recently rallied…

None of these are immediate sells but ones to consider.

Portfolio Six Updated November, 2014

Portfolio Six is our newest portfolio, it is two years old going on year 3 now.  The beneficiary contributed $1500, the trustee contributed $300 fora total of $4500.  The current value is $5022 for a gain of $522 or 12%, which is about 6% / year.  See the detail here or go to the link on the right.

The portfolio is doing well.  P&G and Baidu are doing well.

New Stop Loss Orders

Our stop loss orders have expired.   I went through the stocks and picked out a few more per portfolio.  These expire in 60 days (6/3/14) or if they are executed.

Portfolio One

– Twitter (TWTR) is at $44.  Put in a limit at $35.  The stock has dropped since we purchased it and is very volatile.  Twitter got dumped on by the market and fell quickly, hit limit and we sold

Portfolio Two

– Splunk (SPLK) limit at $60.  This stock has been a great portfolio but don’t want to ride it too far down.  Hit limit and sold off.  Note the stock has continued to fall far below this number, into the 40’s. Glad we sold.  At some point may look to get back in the stock

– Facebook (FB) limit at $50.  Same as Splunk.

Portfolio Three

– Splunk (SPLK) limit at $50 per above.  Hit limit and sold off

– Baidu (BIDU) limit at $140, has been down since we’ve bought it

Portfolio Four

– Nucor (NUE) limit at $46

– Seaspan (SSW) limit at $18

Portfolio Five

– Seaspan (SSW) limit at $18

– Baidu (BIDU) limit at $140, has been down since we’ve bought it

Portfolio Three

– Seaspan (SSW) limit at $18

– Baidu (BIDU) limit at $140, has been down since we’ve bought it

 

 

Stock Selections – February 2014

Due to recent stop orders being triggered it is time to select additional stocks for all but one of the six portfolios.  My goal is to select stocks and purchase them so that we can update the portfolio information in line with the need to file taxes by April 15, 2014 (although many of the portfolios don’t need to file because the beneficiaries don’t meet minimum income requirements between these funds and other earnings).

As the individual portfolios get larger, we want to keep the number of individual stocks manageable, so these portfolios will generally have larger purchases of a single stock than multiple stocks at smaller quantities.  The goal is to keep the number of stocks in each portfolio between 10 – 15 stocks, so smaller portfolios will buy in smaller quantities until they hit the 10 number, and the larger portfolios will buy larger positions when they hit the 15 number.

Stock Purchases by Portfolio: 

Portfolio 1

– 3 stocks at $2000 / each

Portfolio 2

– 1 stock at $1700

Portfolio 3

– 2 stocks at $1100 / each

Portfolio 4

– No purchases required

Portfolio 5

– 2 stocks at $700 / each

Portfolio 6

– 1 at $800

 Portfolio Selections for February 2014

US Companies

KO – Coca-Cola – $37, 52 week range ($37-$43), 3% yield, $164B market cap, $37B debt.  Coca-Cola is the worlds’ most iconic beverage brand.  They had some recent issues and their stock fell and this could be a buying opportunity for a well-run company with a good dividend.

APC – Anadarko Petroleum Corporation – $82, 52 week range ($73 – $98), 1% yield, $41B market cap, $14B debt.  Anadarko is a leader in US oil and gas development and there are continuing opportunities with the rising price of natural gas and US oil.

AVA – Avista Energy – $30, 52 week range ($25 – $30), 4% yield, $1.8B market cap, $1.5B debt  Avista is a well run utility in the Pacific northwest.

TWTR – Twitter – $56, 52 week range ($39 – $74), no dividend, $30B market cap, almost no debt.  Twitter is one of the main players in the modern internet.

GRPN – Groupon – $8, 52 week range ($4 – $12), no dividend, $5B market cap, no debt.  Groupon is attempting a comeback from recent issues and has come up substantially from market lows.

CVC – Cablevision – $16, 52 week range ($13 – $20), 4% dividend, $4B market cap, $10B debt.  Cablevision is run by the wily Dolan family and may be part of industry consolidation.

Non-US Companies

BHP – BHP Billiton – $70, 52 week range ($56 – $76), 3% dividend, $188B market cap, $38B debt.  BHP is a well run global commodity company based out of Australia.

TAC – TransAlta Corp – $12, 52 week range ($12 – $16), 4% yield, $3B market cap, $4.5B debt.  TransAlta is a Canadian energy company that recently cut their dividend and plans to spin off some market segments but provides energy to the growing Alberta market so this may be a buying opportunity.

BIDU – Baidu – $172, 52 week range ($82 – $185), no dividend, $60B market cap, $3B debt.  Baidu is an iconic Chinese internet company.  Their price is near the top of the range.