Portfolio One Updated August 2017

Portfolio One is our longest lived Portfolio.  We opened it right after 9/11… meaning that it is almost 16 years old.  This portfolio has moved from the trustee to the beneficiary’s account, but we also still set it up so that the trustee has agency (can see the portfolio, buy and sell).

The beneficiary contributed $7500 and the trustee $15,500 for a total of $23,000.  The current value of the portfolio is $44,883 for a gain of $21,883 or 95%, or 7% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here or to the link on the right for details.

The portfolio is doing well.  We added some criteria and filtering for stocks “at risk” (BOX, Budweiser Inbev and Exxon) or “on watch” (Tata Motors / TTM).  BOX has doubled recently and is down a bit; BUD just finished a major merger but Exxon is near 5 year lows and a bit controversial due to politics.  Tata (TTM) is one we will look at closely.

Portfolio Five Updated April 2017

Portfolio 5 is 7 1/2 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4000 and the trustee $8000 for a total of $12,000.  The current value is $14,151 for a gain of $2151 or 18%, which is about 3.6% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can go here to see the portfolio or go to the links on the right side of the page.

The portfolio is about 50/50 with US and foreign stocks.  Almost half the stocks are considered “high dividend” with a dividend of near 3% or greater.  Gilead (GILD) is a recent drugmaker purchase and Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) are both pretty well run companies on or near watch.

On a side note, this is one of the first portfolio to be almost totally run by formulas in Google Sheets.  I incorporated vLookups and re-arranged the sheets a bit to have more of the information on buys and sells populate automatically.  Due to these changes, it will be much easier to update this portfolio in the future and it will be the template that I will apply to the other portfolios as I migrate them to Google Sheets.

Portfolio Post Election

After the elections, stocks have generally gone up. Some sectors have done well, and others have fallen. The US dollar is stronger, which means that our overseas stocks have gone down on a relative basis.

We are judicious on selling off stocks here. However, since the election is past it is likely time to make a few moves in some areas.

Portfolio One:

  • Novartis (NVS)– the Swiss drug maker is down about 20% from where we bought it (but has almost a 4% dividend), and drug makers seem to be under pressure with the new administration calling for price reductions. On watch will look at the next earnings release at the end of January
  • Statoil (STO) – the Norwegian oil company is down 20% off our purchase price but has come back significantly with possible increases in oil prices.  They also didn’t cut their dividend which remains a high 6% yield which also is positive for investors.  Will watch and see if it rises further
  • Infosys (INFY) – Infosys has fallen about 25% off its peak.  The company benefits from the declining Indian currency since most of its revenues are earned overseas.  However, the offshore firms have also been hit by the new administration and potential curbs on outsourcing, which they are trying to limit by having more US based staff and less overseas contractors.  The company is on watch
  • Tesla Motors (TSLA) – this is a very speculative stock (little earnings, high valuation) and has high volatility.  We will keep it on watch
  • Anheuser Busch Inbev – the stock has dropped by over 30% recently as they attempt to purchase Miller Coors.  They also have been hit with economic volatility in Brazil.   They are a well run group but these are strong headwinds.  We will put the stock on watch

Portfolio Two:

Portfolio Two moved over to ETF’s and CD’s.  Their ETF’s have been doing well with the exception of the NASDAQ Biotech ETF (IBB) in which we have a relatively small position that is new.  We will continue to watch this sector ETF.

Portfolio Three:

  • Wynn (WYNN) – the casino stock is a major operator in China.  The stock is down over 30% and no longer delivering “special” dividends beyond the regular quarterly dividend.  We will sell the stock now
  • Infosys (INFY) – Infosys has fallen about 25% off its peak.  The company benefits from the declining Indian currency since most of its revenues are earned overseas.  However, the offshore firms have also been hit by the new administration and potential curbs on outsourcing, which they are trying to limit by having more US based staff and less overseas contractors.  The company is on watch

Portfolio Four:

  • Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF) – the Central American distributor of Coke is 40% off from our purchase price,  been hit by various issues and negative currency fluctuations and now finally the current administration.  We will sell the stock now
  • Tesla Motors (TSLA) – this is a very speculative stock (little earnings, high valuation) and has high volatility.  We will keep it on watch
  • Novartis (NVS)– the Swiss drug maker is down about 20% from where we bought it (but has almost a 4% dividend), and drug makers seem to be under pressure with the new administration calling for price reductions. On watch will look at the next earnings release at the end of January
  • Statoil (STO) – the Norwegian oil company is down 20% off our purchase price but has come back significantly with possible increases in oil prices.  They also didn’t cut their dividend which remains a high 6% yield which also is positive for investors.  Will watch and see if it rises further
  • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) – the European oil company is down almost 20% on price but has been rising and hasn’t cut the over 6% dividend.  Will watch and see if it rises further
  • Devon (DVN) – unlike Statoil and Shell, Devon did cut their dividend and is down about 20% on price.   However, the stock is up almost 2 1/2 times off its low so we will hold it as it keeps recovering.  Will watch and see if it rises further

Portfolio Five:

  • Anheuser Busch Inbev – the stock has dropped by over 30% recently as they attempt to purchase Miller Coors.  They also have been hit with economic volatility in Brazil.   They are a well run group but these are strong headwinds.  We will put the stock on watch
  • Juniper (JNPR) – Juniper had been down significantly but now is above our purchase price.  We will watch this stock as an acquisition candidate and may sell if it stops rising.  This stock is on watch

Portfolio Six:

  • Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF) – the Central American distributor of Coke is 40% off from our purchase price,  been hit by various issues and negative currency fluctuations and now finally the current administration.  We will sell the stock now

Portfolio Seven:

  • Unilever (UNLV) – Unilever is down about 14% off peak due to the reduction in the value of the British pound and other factors.  This is a recent purchase and a well run company we will put the stock on watch

Portfolio Eight:

  • Unilever (UNLV) – Unilever is down about 14% off peak due to the reduction in the value of the British pound and other factors.  This is a recent purchase and a well run company we will put the stock on watch

 

Stock Selections for 2014

It is time to select 2014 stocks.  Generally each fund selects 2 new stocks, although there are some significant cash balances available on the other funds (due to stock sales) and they may need to pick more than 2.  Each year we offer a mix of US and non-US stocks for selection.

US Stocks

Linked In (LKND) – $201 / share, $24B market cap, 52 week range $136-$258, no dividend, no debt.  Linked In is a growing and well run web company for business professionals to make contacts and find new opportunities.  They recently had excellent earnings for Q2 2014

Exxon Mobil (XOM) – $99 / share, $424B market cap, 52 week range $84-$104, 2.7% dividend, $11B long term debt.  Exxon Mobil is viewed as the best run energy company in the world and has a disciplined use of capital with a long term horizon.

General Motors (GM) – $33 / share, $53B market cap, 52 week range $31-$41, 3.3% dividend, $40B debt.  While GM has been in the news recently regarding recall efforts, they have a long term growth story with their presence in China and the growth of vehicles in that market, which passed the US in terms of cars purchased and has larger growth opportunities

eBay (eBay)  – $52 / share, $65B market cap, 52 week range $48-$59, no dividend, $5B debt.  eBay is a well run e-commerce company that also owns the payments company PayPal.  They have moved successfully to mobile and offer many products with “buy it now” and not just auction sales.

Foreign Stocks

Anheuser Busch Inbev (BUD) – $107 / share, $171B market cap, 52 week range $92-$116, 1.9% dividend, $49B debt. The iconic US company that makes Budweiser was bought by hard-charging Brazilians and headquartered in Belgium.  This is the dominant worldwide beer company.

Weibo Corp (WB) – $19 / share, $6B market cap, 52 week range $16-$24, no dividend, little debt.  Weibo runs a Chinese microblogging platform.  It is kind of a Chinese twitter.  They release earnings on August 5 we will also see the market reaction to those results.

Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF) – $108 / share, $22B market cap, 52 week range $92-$149, 1% dividend, $4B debt.  This Mexican company runs the successful Coca-Cola franchise along with beverages in many other latin and Spanish speaking countries.

China Life Insurance (LFC)  – $44 / share, $83B market cap, 52 week range $35-$49, 1.6% dividend, $14B debt.  China Life Insurance is a large insurer in mainland China, where the population is aging and opportunities for insurance will grow as a result.