Portfolio Seven is about half a year old. The beneficiary invested $500 and the trustee $1000 for a total of $1500. The current value of the portfolio is $1357, for a loss of ($143) or negative (9.5%). Both Alibaba (BABA) and Mastercard (MA) have come down about 10% since purchased in the fall.
Due to the fact that there is only modest dividend and no sales in this portfolio we were not sent a tax return by the brokerage.
Portfolio Three is our third longest lived portfolio, at 8 1/2 years. The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000 for a total of $13,500. The current value is $12,814 for a loss of ($685) or (5%). Adjusted for the timing of cash flows, this is (1%) a year. The detail can be found in the links on the right or here.
This year we sold Yahoo after all the drama and bought ConocoPhillips, Alibaba and Facebook.
There are a few stocks on watch. LinkedIn (LNKD) dropped almost half its value when it issued forward earnings guidance; since then the stock has stabilized and is on watch. I still believe in the company although many others apparently do not. ConocoPhillips (COP) was hit immediately by the collapse in oil prices (even though we were buying it on a dip) – this is also on watch to see how they do in this difficult environment for commodity companies. Wynn (WYNN) is a casino company with properties in Macau China catering to heavy Chinese gamblers; the crackdown on corruption has severely dampened earnings.
For taxes in 2015, there is a net loss for the year due primarily to a fall in value of Weibo (WB) which was pummeled in the great Chinese stock market rout and we sold the stock (it since gained back some of its value).
Of the other stocks we’ve sold in recent years they are still below the price we sold them at.
Attached is a screen shot from Google Finance of Portfolio Three after stock sales and purchases for 2015. New stocks are Alibaba (BABA), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Facebook (FB). The returns by stock represent stock price appreciation not dividends so dividend stocks have a higher return than listed.
Attached are the stock selections for 2015. We are expanding the list slightly because most of the funds not only have new cash to invest for 2015 but we also did a recent round of selling that needs to be re-invested.
- Box (BOX) – $13, 52 week range $11-$24, $1.5B market cap, no dividend, little debt. Box provides a cloud-based document storage and governance capability and is growing rapidly among Fortune 500 corporations
- Mastercard (MA) – $101, 52 week range $75-$101, $114B market cap, 0.7% yield, $1.5B debt. Mastercard is a global credit card brand that benefits from the long-term migration of cash and checks to credit. Their biggest competitor, Visa, recently announced a merger with Visa Europe which likely will distract that company for several years and give Mastercard an opportunity to pick up market share
- ConocoPhillips (COP) – $55, 52 week range $41-$74, $68B market cap, 6% yield, $25B debt. ConocoPhillips is an oil and gas exploration company that is a major bet on future price rises for natural gas and oil with technical knowhow and efficient production. They recently made major cuts in response to the commodity price collapse
- Union Pacific (UNP) – $86, 52 week range $79-$124, $73B market cap, 2.6% yield, $13B debt. Union Pacific operates a massive US rail network and has been hit recently by reductions in the industrial and commodity economies. However, they are highly efficient and represent a solid long term bet on industrial growth and recovery
- Tata Motors (TTM) – $30, 52 week range $21-$51, $19B market cap, no dividend, $11B. Tata Motors is an Indian based company that benefits from low costs and growth in the Indian car market and also owns Jaguar and Land Rover. The stock will be down a bit early next week because they just released earnings and showed an unexpected loss due to a one time event
- China Eastern Airlines (CEA) – $30, 52 week range $20-$50, $8B market cap, no dividend, $6B debt. China Eastern Airlines can benefit from the growth in outbound Chinese tourism and investment as well as potential government mandated consolidation in the airlines sector which could result in higher profits and reduced competition
- Alibaba (BABA) – $83, 52 week range $57-$120, $207B market cap, no dividend, $8B debt. Alibaba is a major web commerce / mobile player in China. Much of Yahoo’s value was based on an ownership stake in this entity (we recently sold off Yahoo)
- Novartis (NVS) – $89, 52 week range $88-$106, $214B market cap, 2.7% yield, $22B debt. Novartis is a major Swiss based drug maker
This is a new section. These are some riskier stocks either because of high prices or uncertain outcomes.
- Tesla (TSLA) – $232, 52 week range $181-$286, $30B market cap, no dividend, $2.6B debt. Tesla is a maker of electric cars led by the charismatic Elon Musk. Their valuation is very high considering that they lose money, gas prices are low which reduces the savings from electricity, and they deliver a fraction of the cars that a “major” automotive giant would. On the other hand, their fan base is passionate and their design is praised
- Facebook (FB) – $107, 52 week range $72-$110, $301B market cap, no dividend, little debt. Facebook is the ubiquitous social media presence with a huge and growing global and mobile footprint and messaging. Their market cap has almost tripled since their IPO and are led by the charismatic Mark Zuckerberg
- Cheniere (LNG) – $46, 52 week range $43-$82, $11B market cap, no dividend, $16B debt. Cheniere is a long term bet on liquified natural gas, which takes (relatively) cheap US gas and ships it to offshore countries seeking clean energy and diversified energy sources. This is a risky but possible bet because the facilities are mostly built but yet to ship gas and prices are falling, but the long term upside is also large if they can survive and prosper
Portfolio five is six years old. The beneficiary contributed $3500 and the trustee has contributed $7000 for a total of $10,500. The current value is $11,297 for a gain of $797 or 7.6%, which is 1.8% / year. The details can be found here or you can use the links on the right.
Portfolio five has a couple of stocks on watch. Yahoo (YHOO) has most of its value tied to the Chinese company Alibaba (BABA). Seaspan (SSW) has a very high dividend at 9% and is on watch to see if that is sustainable.
Portfolio three is eight years old, with the beneficiary contributing $4500 and the trustee contributing $9000, for a total of $13,500. The current value is $13,243 for a loss of ($256) or (1.9%), which works out to an annual return that is slightly negative (0.4%) / year. See the details here or use the links on the right.
The portfolio has had some stocks move against us lately. Wal-Mart (WMT), an historically strong performer, recently came out with 3 year stock guidance that showed low growth and the stock went down. Wynn (WYNN), a gambling company with strong interests in China, was also adversely hit by the Chinese governments’ crack down on money laundering and VIP gamblers. Exxon-Mobil (XOM), the energy giant, has gone down tied with the commodity bust. Yahoo (YHOO) is up overall but down from recent highs and is mainly a value play on its Alibaba (BABA) stake.
We will look at selling some of these stocks as part of our 2015 new stock purchase planning.
There have been stock sales in some of the portfolios so we will have another round of stock selections. Here are the choices.
- Vale ADR (VALE) – $7, ($5 – $14 over 52 weeks), $35B market capitalization, 5.5% yield, $35B in debt. The Brazilian mining giant has been hit hard by the reduction in demand for the commodities that it produces as well as difficulties in Brazil as the economy is stagnant and the currency is falling. With these factors it is a solid candidate for a rebound in future years if they can continue to focus on efficiency and cost reductions
- Alibaba (BABA) – $88, ($77 – $120 over 52 weeks), $220B market capitalization, no dividend, $8B in debt. Alibaba is a Chinese e-commerce giant. They are listed directly on the NYSE and not an ADR. While the Chinese stock market has made a huge advance recently, Alibaba has slowed as the company re-groups and reduces hiring and focuses on execution. If you already own Yahoo don’t buy Alibaba because Yahoo has ownership of a portion of their stock which is already reflected in Yahoo’s value
- Infosys ADR (INFY) – $31, ($25 – $37 over 52 weeks), $35B market capitalization, 1.6% yield, no debt. The Indian outsourcing and consulting company is poised to grow with India and benefits from the strong dollar since much of its costs are in Indian currency but much of its revenues are received in dollars
- Celgene (CELG) – $115, ($72 – $129 over 52 weeks), $91B market capitalization, no dividend, $7B in debt. Celgene is a US biotech / drug company with a variety of drugs under patent and a pipeline of many other potential future products
- Juniper Networks (JNPR) – $27, ($18 – $27 over 52 weeks), $11B market capitalization, 1.5% yield, $2B in debt. Juniper Networking is a high technology company specializing in fast networking gear. The company is well run and has beaten analyst profit estimates recently
- Dow Chemical (DOW) – $51, ($41 – $54 over 52 weeks), $59B market capitalization, 3.3% yield, $20B in debt. Dow Chemical provides processed material for manufacturing and agriculture. The company benefits from lower US natural gas costs which provide advantages since it is a major component of their products. The company recently fended off an activist investor which reduced their stock price.