Portfolio Four Updated December 2018

Portfolio Four is 9 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $16,984 for a gain of $1,984 or 13%, which is about 2.3% / year over the life of the account.  Go here or to the link on the right for details.

Given the current market, we have some stocks that we are monitoring:

  • Electronic Arts (EA) – this stock is at about 53% of its 52 week high, as the whole games market has been hit hard lately even though the fundamentals (revenue) aren’t that much different, possibly due to Fortnight and the potential impact of streaming.  Will watch, may sell
  • ABB (ABB) – European industrial conglomerate which has fallen about 20% since we’ve bought it
  • Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell
  • Box (BOX) – this is a well-run tech company that is a possible take over target.  They have gone down 25%+ with the overall tech market.  Will watch

Portfolio Three Updated December 2018

Portfolio Three is 11 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trusted $12,000 for a total of $18,000.  The current value is $21,710 for a gain of $3,710 or 21%, which is 2.9% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  See the details here or go to the links on the left.

There are a few stocks we are looking at in the current market environment:

  • Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell
  • Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks
  • Facebook (FB) – it has been a bad year for Facebook and the stock is down about 30% off its highs.  Still strong financial performance, will watch
  • Baidu (BIDU) – another Chinese internet company down about 30% off its peak.  Will watch like Alibaba, above
  • ABB (ABB) – European industrial conglomerate which has fallen about 20% since we’ve bought it

Portfolio Four Updated August, 2018

Portfolio four is nine years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000 for a total of $13,500.  Current value is $18,063 for a gain of $4,563 which is 34%, or 5.8% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for details or click the link on the right.

There are 3 stocks that we have on watch right now:

  • Tesla (TSLA) – the volatile car maker stock led by Elon Musk is in the news almost every day it seems
  • ABB (ABB) – the large European conglomerate we bought about a year ago
  • Elbit Systems (ESLT) – Israeli defense contractor which recently acquired Uzi from their government

We are likely to sell TSLA and the other two we will likely continue watching.

 

Portfolio Three Updated August 2018

Portfolio three is 11 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5500 and the trustee $11,000 for a total of $16,500.  The current value is $23,170 for a gain of 40% or 5.6% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the data here or at the link on the right.

We have a few stocks that we are considering selling now.

  1. ABB (ABB) – ABB is a European conglomerate with a new CEO that is well run.  Down about 20% from 52 week high but too early to sell (just bought it last year)
  2. DowDuPont (DWDP) – this chemical company is performing well.  We will likely sell it before it splits into 3 stocks in 2019
  3. Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu is a large internet company in China.  It is down about 20% from 52 week high.  Will probably keep
  4. Elbit Systems (ESLT) – Elbit is an Israeli defense contractor.  They are doing well operationally but are down about 20% from a recent peak.  Probably will hold on to it
  5. Wal-Mart (WMT) – Wal-Mart is well run but in the fight for its’ life against Amazon.  May want to take our winnings and go. Stock recently rallied…

None of these are immediate sells but ones to consider.

Stock Selections for 2017

Below are our stock selections for 2017:

US Stocks

  1. Appian (APPN) – $24, 52 week range $17-$27, $1B market cap, no dividend, almost no debt.  Appian is an internet software company that provides automation software for corporate customers.  Well run and growing fast, went public recently and has done well since the IPO

2. Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) – $179, 52 week range $63-$191, $107B market cap, almost no dividend, $4B debt.  Nvidia makes chips for games and graphics cards and these chips are also being used for AI and machine learning use cases.

3. General Motors (GM) – $42, 52 week range $30-$42, $61B market cap, 3.8% yield, $55B debt.  GM is an iconic, global auto manufacturer with strong worldwide presence including China and has invested heavily in electric car technology.  Non US sales total 58% of volume (but a smaller percentage of profits).

4. Snapchat (SNAP) – $15, 52 week range $11-$29, $18B market cap, no dividend, no debt.  Snapchat went public and recently has lost almost half its value.  The company has over $2B in cash but is running a large loss due to operational expenses and acquisitions.  However, it is still strong in market and mind share and could also be an acquisition candidate for the right price

International Stocks

5. Baozun (BZUN) – $36, 52 week range $11-$41, $2B market cap, no dividend, little debt.  Baozun is a Chinese e-commerce provider for many major companies.

6. ABB (ABB) – $25, 52 week range $20-$25, $54B market cap, 3% yield, $7B debt.  ABB is a Swiss company and European conglomerate with strong interests in power and electricity generation.

Other

7. Gold ETF (IAU) – $12, 52 week range $11-$13, no dividend.  This ETF tracks the price of gold.  In case of a market correction (prices go down), gold often holds its value on a comparative basis.  On the other hand, gold pays no dividends and does not generate profits

We looked at bitcoin but there currently isn’t a direct bitcoin ETF and if someone wanted to trade bitcoin or ether they would be better off trading it directly.  These sorts of crypto currencies can cause taxation and other related issues and are too complex for this portfolio at the current time.