Portfolio Six Updated July 2021

Portfolio six is almost 9 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000 for a total of $13,500.  The current value is $24,154 for a gain of $10,654 or 78%, which is 11.5% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for details or to the link on the right.

The stocks are generally doing well and no action is needed at this time.

Portfolio Four Updated July 2021

Portfolio four is almost 12 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trustee $12,000 for a total of $18,000.  The current value is $38,597 for a gain of $20,597 or 114%, which is 11.3% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for the details or to the link on the right.

Like the other portfolios that moved to the agency model recently, the brokerage switched to paying dividends in fractional shares which caused a book keeping headache and I’ve switched back (it doesn’t impact value).  The portfolio has done well and currently doesn’t have much cash on hand.

Portfolio Five Updated July 2021

Portfolio Five is almost 12 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trustee $12,000 for a total of $18,000.  The current value is $38,767 for a gain of $20,767 or 115%, which is 11.4% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the details here or at the link on the right.

The stocks in the portfolio are generally doing well.  Alibaba and Baozun have been hit with headwinds out of China.  Right now there is $7,452 in cash, mostly from the sale of Appian (APPN), which rose quickly and we sold and have not yet reinvested the funds.

It is minor and doesn’t impact value but we moved these portfolios from UTMA to owned by the beneficiary and the provider flipped all the individual stocks to reinvest dividends so now we have a lot of fractional shares.  I turned that off and it is minor in the grand scheme but an annoyance because I work here to tie out to the penny.

Portfolio Three Updated July 2021

Portfolio three is 14 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $7000 and the trustee $14,200 for a total of $21,200.  The current value is $34,524 for a gain of $13,324 or 63%, which is 6.3% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see the detail here or at the link on the right.

The portfolio is ETF based.  We recently moved from UTMA to self-managed with agency and the dividends came in the form of incremental shares rather than cash so we had to adjust the shares, and there was a reverse split for gold (IAU).  These are minor changes in the grand scheme, but since I tie out to the penny, it is annoying.  I recently changed the ETF’s to not re-invest, which works out since we aggregate dividends and re-invest with new contributions regularly.  The portfolio is 34% Bonds / Cash / Gold which reduces risk but also returns in times when the markets have been rising such as the post March 2020 market scare.

Portfolio Two Updated July 2021

Portfolio two is almost 17 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $13,000 and the trustee $17,200 for a total of $30,200.  The current value is $61,439 for a gain of $31,239 or 103%, which is 8.2% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here or to the link on the right for more detail.

The portfolio is doing well overall, with mostly ETF’s and some single name stocks.  BABA is one of the single name stocks that has hit trouble recently with Chinese regulation, but it is a good long term holding.  The portfolio has 23% of assets in  cash, bonds, & gold which reduces risk but also has held down returns that have risen recently after the March 2020 markets scare.

Portfolio One Updated July 2021

Portfolio One is our longest lived portfolio, at almost 20 years.  We started this portfolio the day after 9/11/01 (a significant day in hindsight).

The value is $91,424 and the beneficiary invested $5000 and the trustee $19,000 for a total of $24,000.  Gains are $67,424 or 280%, which averages out to 10.4% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for a summary or to the link on the right.

In March we sold half our position in Rocket Mortgage (RKT) when it was part of the “meme” stock frenzy.  The stock has returned to what we paid for it originally plus paid a dividend.  We also had a reverse split for IAU gold shares (rare, it actually makes the price higher) and received a small amount of cash for our fractional half share (not a dividend, a return of capital, but very small).

The stocks in the portfolio are generally doing well, along with the market overall.

July Stocks to Consider

The following 16 stocks (plus gold) have been solid in our portfolio and are recommended for consideration if you don’t have them or wish to add more.

  1. Accenture (ACN) – well run consulting company growing and also acquiring smaller companies in niche areas
  2. Alibaba (BABA) – Chinese Amazon equivalent has been battered by regulators but seems to be turning a corner, still enormous and critical to their economy
  3. Cloudflare (NET) – an innovative, fast growing tech company with a service for internet connectivity and security
  4. Electronic Arts (EA) – Major video game firm in a giant and growing industry
  5. Facebook (FB) – Fast moving and innovative firm seems to have minimized regulatory scrutiny and can monetize world-wide
  6. Gold EFT (IAU) – an ETF that tracks the price of gold, traditionally a hedge against uncertainty
  7. Kraft Heinz (KHC) – a global food and beverage firm that has reworked its operating model after recent underperformance
  8. Mastercard (MA) – a well run player in payments
  9. Nvidia (NVDA) – a rapidly growing player in chips and innovation
  10. OKTA (OKTA) – a well run enterprise software firm
  11. Paypal (PYPL) – a growing and innovative payments provider
  12. Procter & Gamble (PG) – iconic consumer product firm
  13. Starbucks (SBUX) – ubiquitous coffee shop pivoting post pandemic
  14.  Tesla (TSLA) – high priced but rapidly growing electric car firm led by Musk
  15. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) – global chip producer that continues to perform well
  16. Union Pacific (UNP) – well run US railroad

Other US companies to look at for July, 2021:

  • Fiserve (FISV) – Fiserve provides services for payments and banks and is well run and has grown for many years
  • Chevron (CVX) – While Exxon-Mobil (XOM) led the US oil and gas industry for years, Chevron has been rising and moving faster and has a very similar market cap today
  • Snap (SNAP) – the company continues to attract users and innovate with video which continues to grow in advertising impact

Other foreign companies to look at for July, 2021:

  • ABB (ABB) – ABB is a global leader in engineering and electrification, which will grow as the world seeks to move from carbon energy sources
  • Pinduoduo (PDD) – Pinduoduo has an innovative commerce model for aggregating buyers and has had incredible growth in China
  • L’Oreal (LRLCY) – L’Oreal is the French makeup firm which has responded extremely effectively to the pandemic and gone extensively digital

June Performance Summary

Stock_Performance_July_2021

Our portfolios continue to perform well, like the overall market.  We are up about 30% over the last year, net of contributions.   US markets are up around 40% during that period, but our portfolios are about 20% cash / gold along with non-US stocks so it is roughly equivalent.

There are a few stocks that haven’t performed as well as the market as of late; Alibaba (BABA) the Chinese internet giant, SUMO Logic (SUMO) the cloud analytics company, and Baozun (BZUN) the Chinese e-commerce fulfillment company.  However, the performance wasn’t terrible for these 3 companies, just not nearly as good as the overall market.

We are looking at companies to consider buying for the summer investment round.  I am performing research now on candidates.

This year we moved three of the accounts over to “limited agency” status from trust funds; this has become necessary as the beneficiaries get older.  This is a one-time effort that took some time given that the steps are not simple nor clearly laid out.  Even today I noted that many of the individual stocks were set to reinvest dividends, which I turned off because it causes challenges in tracking and is minor in the grand scheme if you reinvest cash regularly (as we do with new investments).

April Performance Review

Performance_April_2021

Since our last updated in mid-February (approximately the market “top”), the value of our positions has declined by about 5% overall, with some portfolios hardly moving and others declining over 10%. The differences were driven by:

  • What percent of the portfolio is in cash or bonds – 25+% portfolio two, 30+% portfolio three, 20%+ portfolio four, with the heavier the cash and bond weighting the lower the decline
  • Amount of high growth stocks in portfolio – certain stocks that have been great performers that are considered “growth” and generally trade as a multiple of sales (say 20-30x sales) such as Tesla (TSLA) and Cloudflare (NET) and Sumo (SUMO) fell as the market moved from growth to value in the first quarter

Given that these portfolios represent a log-term investment for each of the participants and would be a portion of their total net worth (i.e. they often hold other cash in savings or other accounts), we try to be reasonably heavily invested in the market, but each participant has their own risk tolerance.

During this rotation into value stocks, some sectors which had been battered such as energy (Exxon-Mobil and Chevron) and Financials and some general retail have come back strong. There are many of these stocks in the portfolios (such as Coca-Cola, Procter and Gamble, and many others) but they generally represent a lower portion of the total “value” because the tech stocks have risen so much that their position size is much bigger.

We also see variances by region, with Chinese stocks rising and US stocks generally rising (at least in some sectors) but European stocks stagnant. Since these portfolios seek to choose both US and overseas stocks, we also will see changes in value based on changes in currencies and country-specific dynamics. We do not intend to “predict” which ones will rise and fall, but we encourage a balanced mix of stocks by sector and region / currency where possible.

Some specific stocks have fallen and are “on watch”, including:

  • Alibaba (BABA) – a well run Chinese company with huge cloud presence (like AWS) and a giant financial arm (called ANT), this group has run afoul of regulators and Chinese politics.  It is down about 25% from its high
  • Cloudflare (NET) – Cloudflare runs an advanced online system and trades for more than 30x revenues… making it susceptible to falling when it doesn’t perform exceedingly well in revenue growth or when interest rates increase.  It is down about 20% off its high
  • Tesla (TSLA) – the grand-daddy of all stock high flyers is down about 20% from recent peaks
  • Sumo Logic (SUMO) – SUMO has lost about half its value from peak recently.  While SUMO is still growing quickly, it recently acquired a company and is not exceeding expectations
  • Baozun (BZUN) – Baozun, the Chinese e-commerce support company, is down about 30% off recent highs.  The company was part of a short squeeze and impacted by US / China relations overall, but core operations are solid
  • Gilead (GILD) – this large pharma stock has lost about 20% of its value, despite having high earnings and dividends.  It does not play significantly in the covid space and is a bet for focus on other drugs and treatments in the post-covid era.

By portfolio:

  • Portfolio one -BABA, NET
  • Portfolio two – BABA, NET
  • Portfolio four – TSLA, NET
  • Portfolio five – SUMO, NET, BABA, BZUN
  • Portfolio six – BZUN, GILD, SUMO
  • Portfolio seven – BABA, BZUN, SUMO
  • Portfolio eight – BZUN, SUMO

Additional Stock Picks April 2021

Recently there have been some sales and a few of the portfolios are looking at possible incremental investments.

Note that there are very few “bargain” stocks out there. One that I thought was a relative bargain was Rocket Mortgages (RKT) and then it was pumped up so we ended up taking some short-term profits which we normally don’t do. Some stocks we are considering:

US Companies

  1. Nike (NKE) – the global footwear and clothing retailer saw significant price increase in 2020 but has fallen about 10% off its all-time high.
  2. Etsy (ETSY) – the platform for twee e-commerce also had a recent drop after a big run-up and it is down about 17% off its all-time high.
  3. Twitter (TWTR) – Twitter recently owned up to its poor performance (like Kraft Heinz) and started a new plan to become more profitable and “win over” the market. There was a run up earlier in the year but it is down about 17% from 52 week highs
  4. Chevron (CVX) – the giant energy company is attempting to take over the lead position from Exxon Mobil (XOM) in the energy space. Their stock is trading near 52 week highs
  5. Microstrategy (MSTR) – Microstrategy is a company in the data analytics space that has been around for many years and is not growing. However, they recently decided to borrow money on the bond markets and invest it in Bitcoin and today that makes up about $5B of their $7B market cap. This is an interesting way to play the crypto markets
  6. Honeywell (HOM) – Honeywell is a US controls manufacturer that is benefiting from “edge” and “quantum” computing. As a result, their stock is near a 52 week high
  7. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) – the holding company controlled by Warren Buffet has been under-performing the S&P 500 for over a decade but may be positioned to rise as value stocks come to the fore. The stock is at an all time high

Non-US Companies

  1. Sea Limited (SE) – is a Singapore internet, mobile and gaming platform. It has also pulled back recently and is down about 17% from highs (this is the US ADR of the foreign stock)
  2. L’Oreal (LRLCY) – the global makeup brand has embraced digital and direct sales and is doing well despite covid (the is the US ADR for the foreign stock). The stock is trading near its all-time high
  3. Kraft Heinz (KHC) – the global snack company was selected as a value stock previously and although it has increased in price may still have room to increase. The stock is trading near its recent 52 week highs

Previous Holding Candidates

The stocks that have driven the most value in the portfolio that are not bought across all the portfolio (because every beneficiary selects individually) are:

  1. Electronic Arts (EA) – videogames
  2. Mastercard (MA) – electronic payments and credit cards
  3. CME Group (CME) – financial services
  4. Alibaba (BABA) – Chinese e-commerce giant
  5. Nvidia (NVDA) – semiconductors
  6. OKTA (OTKA) – SAAS provider of security services
  7. Paypal (PYPL) – electronic payments
  8. Procter & Gamble (PG) – iconic brand company
  9. Taiwan Semi-Conductor (TSM) – Asian chip giant
  10. Union Pacific (UNP) – railways
  11. Facebook (FB) – social media platforms
  12. TESLA (TSLA) – electric cars
  13. Wal-Mart (WMT) – massive retailer
  14. Cloudflare (NET) – new cloud stock with potential
  15. Gold ETF (IAU) – tracks price of gold

Portfolio Eight Updated March, 2021

Portfolio eight is 5 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $3000 and the trustee $6000 for a total of $9000. The current value is $16,423 for a gain of $7,423 or 83%, which is 17.5% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. Go here for details or to the link on the right.

During 2020 there was $97 in dividends and a long-term loss of $510 tied to the sale of GM. The portfolio is doing well overall.

Portfolio Seven Updated March, 2021

Portfolio 7 is 5 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $3000 and the trustee $6000 for a total of $9000. The current value is $16,157 for a gain of $7,157 or 80%, which is 17% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. See the details here or at the link on the right.

The portfolio is doing well. During 2020 we had a long term loss of $558 for taxes (sell GM) and $121 in dividends.

Portfolio Six Updated March 2021

Portfolio six is 8 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $4500 and the trustee $9000 for a total of $13,500. The current value is $22,835 for a gain of $9,335 or 69%, which is 10.4% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows. You can see the details here or at the link on the right.

The portfolio overall is doing well. The drug maker Gilead (GILD) has a good dividend but has had a stagnant price since we bought it many years ago and is on watch.

During 2020 for taxes there was $206 in dividends and a long term capital loss of $841 tied to sales of Shell (RDS.B) and Exxon Mobil (XOM).

Portfolio Five Updated Feb 2021

Portfolio Five is 11 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trustee $12,000 for a total of $18,000. The current value is $36,700 for a gain of $18,701 or 104%, which is 10.9% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows. Go to the link on the right for details or here.

During 2020 there was a net long term gain of $5592, which mainly came from selling Appian (APPN). Dividends totaled $268.

The portfolio is going well. Big gain stocks include Cloudflare (NET), Nvidia (NVDA), Okta (OKTA), Paypal (PYPL), Infosys (INFY) and Procter and Gamble (PG). There is $7393 in cash to consider re-investing as well.

For capital gains – if your income is under $40,000 (as a single filer) in 2020 the long term capital tax rate is ZERO. Thus this was a good year to sell Appian! The long term tax rate is 15% for income > $40,000 but less than $441,000.

Portfolio 4 updated Feb 2021

Portfolio four is 11 1/2 years old. The beneficiary contributed $6000 and the trustee $12,000 for a total of $18,000. The current balance is $34,611 for a gain of $16,611, which is 92% or 9.7% / year adjusted for the timing of cash flows. See the link on the right or go to this link for details.

During 2020 there were some sales with a small net long term gain of $30 and a short term loss of $158. Dividends totaled $316.

The portfolio is currently doing well. TESLA has been a big winner. Other winners include ORCL, NVDA and PG.