Portfolio One Updated May, 2019

Portfolio One is 17 years old.  The current balance is $45,725 (of which $11,087 is cash).  The beneficiary contributed $2500 (net of withdrawals) and the trustee $17,000 for a total of $19,500.  Thus gains are $26,048 or 134% on original investment, which is about 6.7% / year when adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  Go here for details or at the link.

One item to note (it applies to all portfolios, but particularly to this one, because of its age) is the impact of dividends on long term performance.  Most “simple” stock return calculations do not include dividends (they just show the rise or decrease in price over the period selected) which significantly understates the gains from stocks which pay significant dividends (especially when the dividends grow over time).

Electronic Arts (EA) and Nvidia (NVDA) are on watch for this portfolio.

Stocks on Watch, Summer 2019

As part of our investing round for the summer of 2019, we are looking at stocks to consider selling. The following stocks are on that list:

• Baidu (BIDU) – they recently had their first loss and are way down
• Baozun (BZUN) – stock performance far down, likely impacted by China / US trade disputes
• Electronic Arts (EA) – far down with recent low performing franchise entries and hit by rise of Fortnite and mobile gaming
• Gilead (GILD) – has not moved in years
• General Motors (GM) – at risk with China / US trade disputes, automotive is a cyclical industry
• Juniper (JNPR) – just kind of there, not growing, haven’t been taken over yet
• Nvidia (NVDA) – went from huge growth to little / no growth
• Smart Global Holdings (SGH) – missed earnings and hit hard
• Equinor (EQNR) – formerly Statoil. Not moving much in years

In general will look to consolidate down the total # of stocks in the portfolio and will want to re-buy from the 2019 purchase list (to come) which will also include some stocks already in the one of the 8 existing portfolios.

Portfolio Eight Updated December 2018

Portfolio Eight is three years old.  The beneficiary contributed $2000 and the trustee $4000 for a total of $6000.  Current value is $6359 for a gain of $359 or 6%, which is about 2.3% / year across the life of the fund.  See here for details or go to the link on the right.

Some stocks are on watch:

• Baozun (BZUN) – a Chinese e-commerce enablement fun has gone down recently tied to a slow down in growth for China overall.   On watch
• General Motors (GM) – has fallen about 20% recently and taken hard steps including layoffs to get ahead of slowing car demand
• Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell

Portfolio Seven Updated December 2018

Portfolio Seven is three years old.  The beneficiary contributed $2000 and the trustee $4000 for a total of $6000.  Current value is $7000 for a gain of $1000 or 17%, which is about 6.2% / year over the life of the fund.  See here for details or at the link on the right.

We have some stocks on watch:

• Baozun (BZUN) – a Chinese e-commerce enablement fun has gone down recently tied to a slow down in growth for China overall.   On watch
• General Motors (GM) – has fallen about 20% recently and taken hard steps including layoffs to get ahead of slowing car demand
• Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks

Portfolio Six Updated December, 2018

Portfolio Six is six years old.  The beneficiary contributed $3500 and the trustee $7000 for a total of $10,500.  The current value is $10,860 for a gain of $360 or 3%, which is about 1% / year over the life of the fund.  For more details go here or to the link on the right.

We have several stocks on watch:

• Electronic Arts (EA) – this stock is at about 53% of its 52 week high, as the whole games market has been hit hard lately even though the fundamentals (revenue) aren’t that much different, possibly due to Fortnight and the potential impact of streaming.  Will watch, may sell
• Baozun (BZUN) – a Chinese e-commerce enablement fun has gone down recently tied to a slow down in growth for China overall.   On watch
• Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell

Portfolio Five Updated December 2018

Portfolio Five is 9 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $17,439 for a gain of $2,439 or 16% which is 2.7% adjusted for the timing of cash flows.  You can see details here or on the link on the right.

With the recent market performance we have several stocks on watch:

• Alibaba (BABA) – at about 70% of its 52 week peak, has been hit by slow down in China and also a possible previous over-valuation in software stocks
• Baozun (BZUN) – a Chinese e-commerce enablement fun has gone down recently tied to a slow down in growth for China overall.   On watch
• Baidu (BIDU) – another Chinese internet company down about 30% off its peak.  Will watch like Alibaba, above
• General Motors (GM) – has fallen about 20% recently and taken hard steps including layoffs to get ahead of slowing car demand

Portfolio Four Updated December 2018

Portfolio Four is 9 years old.  The beneficiary contributed $5000 and the trustee $10,000 for a total of $15,000.  The current value is $16,984 for a gain of $1,984 or 13%, which is about 2.3% / year over the life of the account.  Go here or to the link on the right for details.

Given the current market, we have some stocks that we are monitoring:

• Electronic Arts (EA) – this stock is at about 53% of its 52 week high, as the whole games market has been hit hard lately even though the fundamentals (revenue) aren’t that much different, possibly due to Fortnight and the potential impact of streaming.  Will watch, may sell
• ABB (ABB) – European industrial conglomerate which has fallen about 20% since we’ve bought it
• Nvidia (NVDA) – another former high flyer, this chip maker was buoyed by crypto mining and is down about 50% off its 52 week high, although it still has strong cash flow.  Will watch, may sell
• Box (BOX) – this is a well-run tech company that is a possible take over target.  They have gone down 25%+ with the overall tech market.  Will watch