Stock Selections for 2019

This year we will have two lists of stock selections.  The first list will be a small list of new selections for 2019, split between US and foreign companies.

The second list will have stocks that are from existing portfolios to choose from, splits between US and foreign companies, if the individual portfolio doesn’t already have these stocks (we want diversification until you get to 15 or so stocks).

New Selections for 2019 – US:

  1. OTKA (OKTA) – OKTA is a software provider of access and authentication solutions for businesses.  OKTA pays no dividends.  It has been on a great run and is used by many major corporations.  It recently went down about 25% from all time highs which is a better price point to purchase.  A new competitor, PING, recently went public and saw its valuation go up, as well (OKTA’s market cap is about 10x bigger)
  2. Abbvie (ABBV) – Abbvie is a pharmaceutical company with a high dividend of almost 6% whose stock price went down almost by half after a recent merger, although it recently recovered some of the loss.  This also may be a good price point to purchase the stock.
  3. Starbucks (SBUX) – Starbucks is an iconic US brand.  The stock pays a modest dividend of 1.6%.  They are focused on profitable growth.

New Selections for 2019 – Non US

  1. BHP (BHP) – BHP is an Australian natural resources (mining / commodities) giant with a high 5.2% dividend.  They are diversified and well run (some competitors like VALE have had significant challenges recently)
  2.  Accenture (ACN) – Accenture is a world wide consulting and outsourcing company headquartered in the Bahamas with a modest 1.5% dividend.  About half their revenues are from North America.  They are well run and a leader in the consulting space

Stocks in US Portfolio to Consider (if not owned already):

  • American Electric Power (AEP) – Utility with 2.8% dividend
  • CME Group (CME) – futures exchange with combined dividends and special dividends more than 3% annually
  • Facebook (FB) – software company with excellent stock performance even after all the publicity.  Paying a few billion for Instagram may be one of the best purchases ever
  • Gold ETF (IAU) – gold does not pay a dividend but the price of gold has recently started rising with risk and high levels of debt behind major countries
  • Coca Cola (KO) – Coke pays a 2.9% dividend and is well run and focused on profits
  • Mastercard (MA) – Mastercard benefits from the rise in mobile payments and move away from checks and cash, and pays a very small 0.5% dividend
  • Procter & Gamble (PG) – Procter and Gamble owns and manages many brands and has a solid 2.5% dividend
  • PayPal (PYPL) – PayPal has done well since its split from EBAY (pays no dividend)

Non US Stocks in Portfolio to Consider (if not owned already):

  • Alibaba (BABA) – Chinese ecommerce giant (no dividend)
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) – Taiwanese chip builder with high 3.6% dividend
  • Unilever (UL) – European company that owns and manages brands with a good 3% dividend

Stock Selections per Portfolio:

  • Portfolio One – to discuss (significant amounts in cash)
  • Portfolio Two – ETF’s and cash, to discuss (40% cash now)
  • Portfolio Three – will move away from stocks and into ETF’s.  Will discuss between VTI (US), VEU (Non US), HEFA (Non US hedged), cash, and IAU (Gold)
  • Portfolio Four M – 3 stocks
  • Portfolio Five D – 4 stocks
  • Portfolio Six – 3 stocks
  • Portfolio Seven G – 2 stocks
  • Portfolio Eight K – 2 stocks

September 2019 Overview

We are about to select stocks for 2019.  I just took a bit to update the portfolios that we keep in a consolidated Google Sheets document with the latest stock sales and cash updates and tied them out to the brokerage statements.

2018-9 have been choppy years with ups and downs (up about 15% for US markets over the last 18 months or so), but we’ve generally done OK as you can see below (I will calculate performance for each portfolio adjusting for the timing of cash flows after purchasing the 2019 stocks).

These numbers also reflect the $10,500 in contributions that we just made (7 beneficiaries contributed $500 each and the trustee $1000 each for a total of $10,500 – with one more to go).

Capital Gains

Under certain circumstances we need to sell individual stocks and move into ETF’s.  If you are at an accounting or auditing firm, they often make you sell stocks of companies that they are auditing and generally ask a lot of questions if you say that you have stocks at all.  Thus it is easier to sell them and go with ETF’s during that period.

When you sell stocks, you typically have to pay tax on your gains.  Long term gains / losses are for stocks that are held > 1 year and short term gains / losses are for stocks that are held less than < 1.

After the 2017 tax changes, there is very favorable treatment for capital gains when you have a low income.  If you have less than $39,375 in income, you have a long-term capital gains tax rate of zero (short term gains and losses are taxed at a different rate, closer to “ordinary income”).

We have these portfolios starting while the beneficiary is in jr. high onward.  Thus we have an opportunity to sell off the stocks with no capital gain taxes paid, which essentially “re-sets” the basis on the amounts invested.  This is very valuable.  The portfolio in question has over $4400 in gains and would have owed perhaps $1000 in taxes under previous methods; instead, the tax bill is zero.

Portfolio Update August, 2019

As of August 2019, our combined portfolios are back to where they were in August of last year. This is mostly in line with VTI (Vanguard US market ETF) which was up about 3% and VEU (non US market ETF which was up about 1%).

Below are stocks to consider selling prior to the new purchases:

Portfolio One:

  • Nnvidia (NVDA) – the once high flying chipmaker stock is hit with slowing growth
  • Equinor (EQNR) – former Statoil is a Norwegian oil company hit by falling price of their currency and anti-oil sentiment in their own country

Portfolio Three:

  • Baidu (BIDU) – Chinese search engine less relevant in mobile era and new investments not yet paying off
  • Nnvidia (NVDA) – the once high flying chipmaker stock is hit with slowing growth
  • ConocoPhillips (COP) – US oil company hit by lower energy prices and relatively smaller footprint

Portfolio Four:

  • Equinor (EQNR) – former Statoil is a Norwegian oil company hit by falling price of their currency and anti-oil sentiment in their own country
  • Nnvidia (NVDA) – the once high flying chipmaker stock is hit with slowing growth
  • Box (BOX) – US SAAS provider not yet acquired by larger company and hit by recent earnings miss
  • Oracle (ORCL) – very well run and doing huge stock by back but trends running against this on premise software stock
  • Westpac (WBK) – Australian bank hit with tough regulatory, business, and real estate impacts

Portfolio Five:

  • Baidu (BIDU) – Chinese search engine less relevant in mobile era and new investments not yet paying off
  • Juniper (JNPR) – US networking company not yet taken over.  Reasonably well run with dividend but in a difficult space
  • ConocoPhillips (COP) – US oil company hit by lower energy prices and relatively smaller footprint
  • Westpac (WBK) – Australian bank hit with tough regulatory, business, and real estate impacts

Portfolio Six:

  • Baidu (BIDU) – Chinese search engine less relevant in mobile era and new investments not yet paying off
  • Nnvidia (NVDA) – the once high flying chipmaker stock is hit with slowing growth
  • ConocoPhillips (COP) – US oil company hit by lower energy prices and relatively smaller footprint

Portfolio Eight:

  • Nnvidia (NVDA) – the once high flying chipmaker stock is hit with slowing growth

Stocks on Watch, Summer 2019

As part of our investing round for the summer of 2019, we are looking at stocks to consider selling. The following stocks are on that list:

  • Baidu (BIDU) – they recently had their first loss and are way down
  • Baozun (BZUN) – stock performance far down, likely impacted by China / US trade disputes
  • Electronic Arts (EA) – far down with recent low performing franchise entries and hit by rise of Fortnite and mobile gaming
  • Gilead (GILD) – has not moved in years
  • General Motors (GM) – at risk with China / US trade disputes, automotive is a cyclical industry
  • Juniper (JNPR) – just kind of there, not growing, haven’t been taken over yet
  • Nvidia (NVDA) – went from huge growth to little / no growth
  • Smart Global Holdings (SGH) – missed earnings and hit hard
  • Equinor (EQNR) – formerly Statoil. Not moving much in years

In general will look to consolidate down the total # of stocks in the portfolio and will want to re-buy from the 2019 purchase list (to come) which will also include some stocks already in the one of the 8 existing portfolios.

Portfolio Overview And Recent Market Activity

Since we moved the portfolios to Google Sheets and integrated them to a single data source, it has been much easier to review overall performance (in aggregate) and performance within a single one of the 8 portfolios.  Like the rest of the overall market, we hit a peak in September at around $180k and have since declined to $168k (a loss of $12k or about 7%).  Traditionally, October has been a month where difficult events occurred, so for whatever reason it happened again in 2018.  Generally the Tech giants have been hit hard, and although we are not invested in many of the most prominent names (Amazon, Google), we do have some investment in Facebook as well as in the Chinese names like Alibaba, who also were impacted.  When this settles down a bit (likely after the elections, for good or ill) we will look through the winners and losers and see if there are any significant actions to be taken among portfolio stocks.  Note that even with recent losses, we are still up from about $137k in April 2017 to $168k in November 2018, which is approximately 20% (it is a bit less than the math would first appear because of the net effect of incremental investments and withdrawals during the period).