The Impact of the Dollars’ Fall on Portfolios

A few years’ back the dollar fell significantly against other currencies around the world.  US citizens who don’t travel overseas may not have seen the impact, but the impact was real in terms of investors in that anyone holding overseas assets (Europe, Canada, Australia) saw a “double return” in that the investments themselves rose and the return after the currency surge was an even bigger boost.

Then the dollar rose against most other currencies, and there were discussions that the Dollar / Euro ratio would move towards 1/1.  In general, if anyone has a prediction about FX, treat it with more than a grain of salt, because the consensus is often very wrong.

ETF’s took notice of investors wanting to get the underlying return of foreign stocks without the impact of the US dollar vs their currency, and ETF’s like HEFA were created.  HEFA takes a non-US portfolio of large capitalization stocks from major markets around the world and hedges them against fluctuations in the US dollar.  While it isn’t a perfect mix (because the underlying weighting of stocks comprising each index are different), HEFA under-performed the Vanguard non-US stock  ETF VEU by a bit less than 10%.  This is what you’d expect because the dollar fell by about 10% when compared to a basket of major market currencies during the last 12 months.

In this case, buying HEFA hurt returns because the dollar fell against foreign currencies.  When the dollar falls, you are better off in foreign assets.  On the other hand, HEFA would have been a superior investment to VEU during all the times when the US dollar was strengthening.

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