Stock Market Performance and Our Stocks in the News

Over the 11+ years that we’ve been setting up these trust funds, tools for monitoring stock performance have improved greatly.  Today I use Google Finance to keep portfolios online for each of the six trust funds, and I update them for buys and sells and available cash.  When we first started these portfolios, it was the dawn of the Internet age (remember those commercials for e-trade), and we usually waited to receive our paper statements.

On the other hand, you don’t want to move into a mode of constant reshuffling of the portfolios.  Watching frequently is strongly correlated with frequent trading – you see and react to short term market movements, and you “kick yourself” when you don’t act on short term hunches.

For these portfolios there is a secondary consideration that I want the portfolio beneficiaries, who will ultimately receive 100% of the value of these stocks, to be as large a part of the decision making process on purchases and sales as possible.  This is a key purpose of these trust funds – to teach the beneficiaries about money and to show the real and substantial long term gains that can occur from systematic investing in a thoughtful way over a long period of time.  For purchases we are able to accomplish this by making it an annual process, tied with the annual back-to-school ritual.  For sales, I am attempting to make this more of a joint decision making process by setting “stop loss” levels up front and communicating these levels rather than selling when I think something is 1) overvalued 2) headed for a big loss.  I still have to move unilaterally on an occasional sale when I want to move relatively quickly, however, but I try to minimize those activities.

With all this said, I do watch the markets relatively closely (usually for a few minutes each night I scan the google finance portfolios for the six trust funds and see if alerts pop up for any of the stocks).

While it is easy to say that “the market has rallied this year and gone up by x%” and then to compare this return vs. your stocks, in reality every stock has its own story based on nationality (about 1/2 of our stocks are non-US), its industry, and then finally there is the large “joint” component of economic moves by the Federal Reserve starting with ZIRP and then moving into “Quantitative Easing”.  These events greatly influence all stock pricing, which can be seen clearly when the entire portfolio moves up and down in unison based on news (or perceived consensus on behavior) from the Feds.

Another entire path is how the international markets are faring – the Chinese economy is built on capital expansion, both in real estate and in manufacturing, and they have their own version of high leverage in various trust products and local debt and banking relationships that are starting to flash major warning signals.  When you listen to the news on economics 90% of it is about the US and our policies, when we represent maybe 20% of the world wide economy and we are heavily influenced by what happens elsewhere.  Of high interest to stock investors is the fact that Chinese markets have been in a slump for years, as they anticipated high growth before the growth became reality and then Chinese investors have since moved on to the (perceived) “easier gains” of local real estate.

Thus with all of this background behind us, here are some of the stories that I’m watching…

Australian banks seem to be the most expensive in the world, and are booming due to a real estate and highly valued currency.  We own Westpac, and this is something to watch.  Note also that when evaluating a high dividend stock (they currently yield almost 6%), it is important to look beyond just the stock value to see the total return.

Yahoo! is a 2013 pick and has done very well recently, up over 40% since we selected it in late Q3 2013.  The new CEO (Marissa Mayer) recently fired her hand-picked head of advertising who had a $60M pay package and their advertising revenue isn’t growing.  However, this doesn’t matter much since almost all of the value of this stock is in its China (Alibaba) stake and Japan stake – the US operations are mostly irrelevant (or a possible upside) to the stocks’ total valuation, per this article.

Shell (we own the “B” shares because they are out of the UK and don’t have the dividend withholding that we would have if we owned the “A” shares out of the Netherlands) recently issued earnings guidance that was touted as “Shell shock” about bad quarterly results.  The stock went down and now we are watching to see what happens next.

Beyond Shell we have a large exposure to the oil industry, including Statoil (Norway), SASOL (South Africa), CNOOC in China (we sold CEO recently when it hit our stop loss), Exxon, and also Anadarko (natural gas).  Thus we need to monitor these companies, to some extent, but we mainly buy and hold them because this is an essential part of the world economy and they pay strong dividends (mostly).

We continue to monitor these stocks and will close down our stop-losses pretty soon and create new stop-losses going out into 2014 for a few months.  We want to keep some down side coverage going both for stocks that have had a great run but also for stocks that might be headed for a fall.  Our stop loss strategy is summarized in this post.

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